Posted on 03/22/2018 8:41:23 AM PDT by Kaslin
Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss-Up, Tilt Republican). Fourteen more are modestly competitive while leaning in the GOP direction. Finally, 26 others might be at risk depending upon the political environment this fall.
Seven Republican seats are already tilting or leaning to the Democrats. These are races where Republican incumbents like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) retired.
Another 13 races are rated as pure toss-ups bringing the number of top-tier Democratic opportunities to 20. Five (5) are found in Pennsylvania due to a court-ordered redistricting plan and most are suburban districts.
Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups.
While these realities are encouraging for Democrats, they can't win the majority without defeating some Republican candidates who are currently favored. In fact, control might be determined by the results in eight (8) Republican seats currently rated as barely tilting in favor of the incumbent party. While each race has its own distinct characteristics, the results are likely to be reflective of the national political dialogue.
For example, Minnesota-3 could be decided by the electoral power of the Republican tax-cuts. In a district Clinton won by 9 points, Democrats hope to use that issue against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen. On the other hand, Paulsen believes that "tax cuts and regulatory reform have created real momentum in our economy." If the tax cut message works, it will help Paulsen keep his job along with many other Republicans in competitive districts.
In Texas-3, John Culberson was seen early on as a potential target for Democrats. Clinton narrowly won his district and the incumbent was slow to build a campaign team and fundraise. But he may have caught a break due to the deep divide between progressives and more centrist candidates. National Democratic strategists openly opposed progressive Laura Moser in the primary, but she made it to the run-off anyhow.
The Democratic civil war may benefit Culberson and other Republicans hoping to keep their jobs. If progressive candidates like Moser are nominated, it could turn off more pragmatic voters. On the other hand, if more centrist Democrats are nominated, it's not clear whether progressive voters will maintain their enthusiasm to vote in November.
If tax cuts and the Democratic civil war help candidates like Paulsen and Culberson win, the GOP might have a decent election night and retain narrow control of the House. Still, even a good night for Paul Ryan's party would probably mean losing 15-20 seats.
On the other hand, there's a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi's team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010.
No, voting for someone because they have an "R" next to their name is the problem. I've been doing that for 25 years now. All that has happened is that the GOP has moved further and further to the left.
There's a real issue thinking this is going to be fixed by voting. It's not. The ballot box no longer works.
What a sorry Trump supporter you are. And if you notice we don't really have a big majority.
You can bet every FReeper is going to vote straight GOP this November. It's the other 99.999% of Trump's voters we need to worry about, the ones who have never heard of this place. The ones who stayed home in Alabama.
Karl Rove gave us a Democrat. congress not us.
It’s all up to Republicans now - if they don’t get off their a$$es to vote this time around and let the Democrats take over the House, this country is about over - Trump will spend the next two years defending himself in “investigations” of everything he’s doing or has done by the House ‘rats, and probably be so wounded by 2020 there’ll be little chance of his reelection - and the next time a Democrat gets into the White House, you can be sure they’ll use every part of the government they can against the people to make sure they never lose power again....
Every time I vote for a Republican, I get a democrat.
Maybe I should vote for a democrat this time?
Farking uniparty.
5.56mm
Reality check. The way the Republicans did this budget and that they did not stand up for ANYTHING in the Deplorable Agenda means that Republicans will have a hard time being elected for so much as local dogcatcher. Don’t ask us to vote for “the lesser of two evils”. The lesser of two evils is the Dems, since they don’t lie about their agenda during campaign season.
***
That’s the problem.
The GOP wants to lose.
So by refusing to vote for them, you’re playing right into their hands.
But then by voting for them, you’re just going to get more of the same.
Wat do?
I'm figuring that the nation is going down anyway. Give it ten years, and we'll be Venezuela but with less border control.
Would you believe I almost felt sorry for Sue Collins today? She's a whacked-out liberal posing as a 'pub, for sure. But she did her damnedest to figure out some initiatives to help people on the Obamacare exchange have affordable health care. And she was abandoned by both political parties. I can only conclude that everything the 'pubs did gives hand outs to their deep pocket donors, for paving the way for their leaving the DC Swamp.
They're bragging about all they did for the military. What they did was for globalist elitists and for contractors and the defense industry. It's more toys to blow up while they obliterate civilizations. I'm one of those Republicans who wanted the military brought to where it should be for preparedness. They seem to want more to fight their wars.
The budget-busting aspects of this are even more bizarre than their failure to get rid of Obamacare. Do they even realize that they've made total fools of themselves?
End of this rant
Even with the courts, it's wait and see. I don't see anything being done to overturn the rulings against President Trump that rogue judges have made.
This looks rough http://cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings
1R likely go D
6 lean to D
22 toss up R
19 Lean R
What, just give up?!
When Trump signed that budget deal today, he signed away control of the House and Senate.
The Repukes are as bad, if not worse then the Dems.
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