Even though Murphy had won reelection, the district is 50,000 D advantage.
Mike Sheppard on twitter has Sheppard’s Law, which says that no one can win a special election if he is of the same party as the person stepping down from a scandal. (See Dan Johnson’s widow losing in KY). Some truth to that.
Ultimately, the question is in states with primaries, would another Lambchop ever get through? Probably not. The national whackadoodles are pushing the party further left. Those candidates cannot win general elections. But if the “conservative Dems” get through primaries, they will be hard to beat just because Trump carried so many D districts. Also there is the historically consistent “party out of power gains seats in off years”.
D’s might have a registration edge in the district but that doesn’t mean much, it’s been voting Republican for President and Congress both for a while and it hasn’t been close either, Romney and McCain won this district, easily, and Murphy never had a close race. It’s not a seat that should have a close race and it took a perfect storm to lose (apparently, though I doubt we “really” lost) by a whisker.
We saw a lot of “moderate” rats win R seats in 06/08 but I’m not overrly worried about that, and best of luck winning democrat primaries, fellas. Next week’s primary in IL-3 is gonna be a good acid test for moderates.
Saccone was crummy, otherwise this doesn’t happen, irregardless of the democrat candidates appeal or the scandal of the previous incumbent (and curse the loser for quitting like a little pansy and creating this unnecessary situation, as you said these special elections are irritating).
Lambchop (if he wins the nomination) has a tougher opponent for November , but also a more favorable district.