Posted on 03/13/2018 8:19:22 AM PDT by JLAGRAYFOX
Your comments, inputs, items of interest, relative weather in the district, turnout as the day goes by, voting problems with machines, equipment, things of interest to voters & observers, general overview, etc. are most welcome!!!
Does seem that way. I come to these threads to hear early polls or on-ground reports, not so much of that today.
I can hardly walk so my door knockin' days are over and every call I make is to fellow choir members.
I DID ask, and I was #169 at a poll that is almost full tilt at 370 something for the presidential, so at around noon, we had almost half of that already at the poll.
Thank you.
I use to put some credence into your posts as they related to the vote trends in Pennsylvania. The problem I had was that you didn’t do any better than I did and I was 4600 miles away in Hawaii. I tend to think that you may be underestimating the effort to reelect Saccone by the party. The very fact that the republicans stuck together and won the State for Trump in 2016 with the help of thousands of “Reagan democrats” bodes well for upcoming elections in the Keystone State.
Lots of folks already assessing blame for a “Saccone” loss. I prefer to wait and see the actual result as it is reported from counting the votes. You might recall that prior to the Texas primary the Democrat Pundits and Media were all barking out that Ted Cruz was in big trouble having to face the Democrat Beto O’Rouke in November. The Democrat “wave” was on it’s way...not true!!!
Turns out that O’Rouke has the problem not Ted Cruz. Ted Cruz received more then 500,000 votes more then O’Rouke received. Game over for him (O’Rouke) and game over for all Democrats in Texas.
Rick Saccone could very well lose this race this evening for one reason or another, but on this thread I would rather hear inputs of how voting is going, etc. rather the favorite rants of all the predictors, including myself.
And if Rick Saccone wins I’ll smile, celebrate and be happy...and if he loses, I’ll be sad...but I always know there is a new day coming in the fight...and this fight goes on as long as this great nation is free!!!
It's their proclivity. They are responsible. I bet you it's the old, "My daddy was a dem, his daddy was a dem and I will vote dem... 'cept fer Trump agin'... maybe."
Well said!
Quite possibly the establishment House wants to lose to stop Trump.
Every Poll at Real Clear Politics with a LARGER Sample size and smaller MOE has Saccone ahead.
That being said, if the Doom and Gloom crowd on this thread are right Saccone loses bigly.
I have said repeatedly, Saccone SHOULD win, but it will be far closer than it should be, and the reason is MESSAGING... this should not even be a race....
Saccone SHOULD win, but its far closer than it should be, and it would not surprise me if Lamb pulled out a win.
This race is about turnout, and Saccone’s messaging (and the GOPe/PAC messaging) has been WRONG to drive turnout, particularly turnout of the MAGA I and D’s who helped Trump win the Upper Midwest.
I am not underestimating effort, I live in this district, I have stated REPEATEDLY that the GOP is fighting harder that I have ever seen in this district... I have said that on many many threads... I have stated again and again, should Saccone lose its NOT going to be for lack of fighting for this district, but the MESSAGING they are using to do it.
Republicans didn’t stick together to win PA, that’s the point... that’s the whole Point... Republicans DID NOT DELIVER THE RUST BELT to TRUMP.... Yes, they voted for him, but not by any significantly greater or lower numbers than they had for previous republicans.... What delivered the Rust Belt to Trump were Independents and Democrats who voted Trump!!!
That, that, is what gave Trump the victory, and that’s my entire point. Special and mid term elections are about TURNOUT. The party out of power is going to turn out.. if you are the party in power you have to get more than your party base to show up, especially if you are not in a state that is DEEP your color.
The messaging in this race has been almost exclusively RED MEAT for the Republican base, but NADA for those I and D’s who voted for Trump.. the disenfranchised who showed up in 2016 motivated and excited... Nothing in the Saccone/GOPe/PAC messaging has been anything beyond standard R messaging, that they have used for about 15 years,... and that, is NOT IMHO going to get those MAGA I and D’s to turn out.
R’s are fighting hard, but they are fighting with the WRONG message, an d that’s my point. Saccone SHOULD win this, but reality is, with right messaging, he would run away with it.. instead its going to be a squeaker win most likely at best.. and Lamb winning is not beyond the realm of possibility.
If the messaging for this race is what the R’s are planning for the fall, expect them to lose the house.
Again, you want everyone in the world to think the way you do.. .and guess what, that ain’t how it works.
If everyone in the world was motivated by the same things folks on FR are motivated for, then nary a D would ever get elected, but that’s not the way the world works.
R’s need a better message, or they are going to get beat come fall. It won’t be a blue wave equivalent to the red waves of 2010 or 1994. Dems won’t pick up 50+ seats, but if the messaging in this race is the game plan for November, they will indeed lose 23+ seats. The messaging of this race is not going to motivate turnout.
You can scream up and down all you like about policy moves, but that isn’t going to motivate turnout. Not the turnout you need anyway.
23 Seats, thats all the D’s need to take the house, 22 if Saccone doesn’t win today. There are more than 22 tight districts that poor turnout will allow a D win... R’s need to understand, voters who put Trump over the top in 2016 didn’t show up to vote R before with the same old tired messages the R was giving them for 10+ years, they aren’t going to show up now for them.
They need to understand what 2016 was, and its clear to me from this campaign they do not.
I voted. Poll workers said the turnout has been steady all day.
I just jumped in here now, but this intrigues me. So, what do you think the way to handle the midterms should be? Do you think we should try nationalizing the House elections, like Gingrich did in '94? Maybe tell our candidates to send a message like, look, don't worry about party affiliation, who is beholden to who, who can deliver the most pork back home. But vote for us and we'll help our President do what you sent him to Washington to do, shake things up, try a different approach, keep draining the swamp. Make the choice clear-cut between that and going back to the same business-as-usual approach that has almost ruined us, starting back in '92 with the Master of Deceit, and continuing through GWB and Hussein Obama. You want that, stay home, and hand the House to the 'Rats. Otherwise, get your butts out there and vote for candidates who will help DJT do what we voted for him to do.
Despite my bewilderment at how deficient GOP messaging is of late, I don’t understand how anybody can bring themselves to vote for the RATS!!!
President Trump’s MAGA agenda represents our last hope to restore our country to true greatness—and any vote today for Lamb is nothing but a repudiation of that reality.
How can any one actually hate President Trump whose only mission is to make all of our lives so much better???!!!
Since I live in the district, here’s my two cents on the race. Both sides have fought long and hard and the phone messages and fliers stuck in doors have been non-stop, so much so that people are joking about it (”at least it’s good for the local economy.”) I thought the fliers could have been more detailed instead of repeating the same old three or four talking points but I guess they know what they’re doing. I hope the 91% negative Trump TV coverage by the MSM didn’t poison the election for any and all Republicans.
Mid terms and special elections are about turnout. The part out of power is motivated to show up, and there is no doubt Democrats and Trump haters will be crawling over glass to vote against Trump... that’s a given. The enthusiasm gap is VERY VERY REAL.
I do think the message has to be the MAGA agenda, there may be some individual races that may be different, but at least in my part of the country, Rust Belt, you better motivate those non traditional R voters to show up and vote Republican like they did for Trump... if they don’t, you are going to see close districts swing.. and 23 districts nationally is not that many.. (if Saccone loses, its only 22 needed to swing the house).
I dont think there is a one size fits all answer to how you need to message your campaign. The type of messaging being used by Saccone, will probably be a safe bet in deep red states and deep red districts.... but its not going to get the MAGA I and D voters a reason to come to the polls IMHO.
But I do agree, as I stated on another post here, the messaging has to be about the voter and the MAGA agenda, and recognizing what 2016 was, and that the candidates are explicitly and expressly on board with it for the VOTERS.. For America.... These voters have to know you aren’t just another GOPe guy that came before, that you GET what they voted for and will fight for it...otherwise they will not show up.
I dont’ know the exact post number, but I believe its up int he 70s somewhere that I post what I think the messaging needs to be, at least in this part of the country... Because the old bread and butter R issues didn’t get these people to vote for you in the past, they aren’t going to get them to vote for you now...
The core message has to be I understand, am on board and will fight for MAGA and Trump... period... At least in this neck of the woods IMHO.
Standard republican Red meat is fine for the base, but I really don’t think its going to work for these Trump voters who are not traditional R voters.
Murphy fooled a lot of people for a long time, I think. I went to college with him and he seemed quite a straight-arrow type. Didn’t know him well, though.
Agreed, this is without question the most aggressive fight I have seen out of the GOP... if they lose its not because they didn’t fight. They absolutely are fighting which has been encouraging to see.
One problem republican candidates have is most have to rely on GOP establishment PAC money. That means they have to be “yes men.” Trump didn’t need their money.
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