Thank you for the considered answer. I agree that the Dems will see Chain Migration as the most important so that would mean funding for the Wall.
IMO, not funding the Wall would be a bigger “broken promise” the Dems and media would trumpet than letting the Dems win on Chain Migration. But the base would be infuriated if the Dems approved funding for the Wall, even for “the DACA kids”. They see the Wall as a symbol of racism and intolerance rather than one of security.
But, in either case, Trump wins something that the Dems would have otherwise never allowed to happen. To their base, they’ll be accused of folding and caving the same way we see the GOP. It will be a win for Trump.
I really would like to see Trump win on all three planks but it’s completely unrealistic with the fickle votes we have in the Senate, plus getting 8-10 crossovers. SOMETHING has to be sacrificed so I think you put the ball back in Schumer’s court and tell him it’s his choice on 2-out-of-3 or the kids get sent back and his base pillories him again for a longer shutdown.
There are 4 items (DACA, wall, lottery, chain), but they’re not all or nothing...and a bad deal (such as Linda’s) is worse than no deal.
Consider DACA traded for the wall and lottery, but chain kept fully intact. With that, DACA will only create 2 million new Democrats, but will let them bring in, or legalize if here, their extended families. If no deal, the DACA bunch will not be voting, much less sponsoring millions of new Democrats. And the net result for us is a wall, which is helpful, and the dropping of 50,000 new Democrat voters (i.e., lottery).
Bottom line, for many of us Trump supporters (maybe most), me included, we always saw the wall as a metaphor, helpful, but really as meaning that we found someone serious about immigration - all types, and Trump’s platform was clear in that area also.
Bottom line, the wall helps a lot with Illegal Entry, but doesn’t help chain migration. So if Trump doesn’t get control of chain migration but vastly increases legal immigration (via DACA) - then the Dems will just swamp us legally, rather than what they’re doing now, which is a combination of legal and illegal. Not good, and we are doing the math and will respond accordingly.