Blue Wave Stall? Marist Shows Dems Lead Plunging On Generic Congressional Ballot

Hot Air ^ | 18 Jan 2018 | Ed Morrissey

[mandaladon]

Over the last month or so, predictions have abounded of a blue wave that would return control of the House to Democrats. Fueled in part by their harsh rhetoric on the tax reform bill and the included repeal of the ObamaCare mandate as legislation that will literally kill people, polling spiked sharply upward in generic Congressional ballot choices. Combined with some special-election results — perhaps most especially in Wisconsin this week — the picture looked bleak for the GOP.

Now that the tax reform bill has begun to take effect, suddenly the gloom is dissipating. A new Marist poll shows the Democratic lead down to six points, and it’s not the only series showing improvements either:

An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll found that when voters were asked which party’s candidate they’d more likely vote for in their district, 46 percent of registered voters said Democrats, while 40 percent went with Republicans. Nine percent are undecided.

That shows a sizable decline from December polling, which found Democrats leading by 13 points on generic ballot polling.

Thursday’s poll found more welcome news for Republicans among registered voters who identify as Independents.

[mandaladon]

The problem for Democrats is that they’ve just assumed that Trump’s unpopularity relieves them of the need to connect with voters outside their base. Their snobbery around the real benefits emerging from the tax reform bill may well doom them in the midterms, I argue in my column today at The Week — and that will only get worse:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Yes indeed...

[FlingWingFlyer]

It is only right when the “democrats” put illegal alien invaders ahead of Americans and American children.

[jmaroneps37]

Nice to see but “generic” poll bogus and meaningless. It is not the generic which is a beauty contest and wish list but the real tell is the enthusiasm rate. The Enthusiasm rate was the one that foretold Trump’s victory.

[Sarah Barracuda]

Which is why the Dems want DACA and amnesty..they know those people will vote 100 percent Democrat

[FrankR]

Trump should start a campaign using a take-off on the “Save the Last Dance for Me.”

Get everyone to save their last pay stub - before the tax cuts - and compare it to what they are getting under Trump AFTER the stub, and with the bonuses.

“Oh Darling, Save the Last, Stub, for Me.”.....

[billyboy15]

Actually generic polls have been quite accurate in calling the results in midterm elections as a whole.

Read a piece sometime ago which said the Democrats traditionally will lead this poll by about 5 points but this lead is considered unimportant and essentially means that the Parties are tied. Anything less than five point lead for the Democrats would actually be a benefit for the Republicans.

[cotton1706]

I ran payroll today with ADP (the largest payroll company) and the tax cuts are already kicking in.

The IRS moved at lightning speed to get the new tax tables up and running.

People will see increases in their paychecks this period and every period thereafter.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks mandaladon.

[Nifster]

Jobs, jobs, jobs plus tax cuts that give people more in their paycheck

Gee who’d a thunk it?

[Panhandle.deporable]

The only reason the poll was permitted to be released I am sure was to try to “warn” thier dem masters. But the lunitic masters will ignore the warning.

[Deplorable American1776]

When the people see that you are getting a pay increase with tax cuts, I think the blue Wave will be nothing...

Also, look around, see now hiring signs up? I do...

[BobL]

Dems still up by 6 on generic, but all that means is a wash for House/Senate - so TRY HARDER dems, for next year.