Posted on 01/14/2018 9:44:50 AM PST by SMGFan
The possibility that Democrats could win the Senate in 2018 seemed preposterous a year ago given President Trump's stunning victory and the basic math facing a party defending three times as many seats as Republicans in November's midterm elections.
Not anymore. The debate has grown over Democrats' chances of capturing control of the agenda and holding power over Trump's nominations, including potential vacancies on the Supreme Court.
The dispute pits the practitioners of big data against those who also scout candidates and measure broader political atmosphere to make their bets.
--------------------- Both Silver and Cook believe the Democratic case for picking up the 24 House seats they need for the majority has only gotten stronger amid Trump's historic unpopularity for a first-year president. Silver actually believes some analysts have been "slow to recognize just how bad things had gotten for Republicans," given election data from 2017 congressional special elections and Virginia's gubernatorial race.
Cook believes Democrats are now favored to win the House.
(Excerpt) Read more at msn.com ...
its that easy huh...i never knew..
Can someone give me an example of an election where this wasn’t the prediction? Seriously, just one election where the story wasn’t “Republicans looking at disaster” or some related theme? One election where GOP defeat wasn’t reflected in the polls or success underestimated?
The only one’s I can think of is Reagan’s re-election and Bush Sr’s first election, they had him losing for most of the campaign.
I say this. If the economy is booming, how do the democrats make the case that ending this policies is a good thing?
Cooke & Sabato Predictions for GOP gains were very good in 2014 & 2010?
Not with candidates like Bradley Manning.
But these are final predictions November 2014, but I know we were very confident in early 2014.
Jan 2, 2014
Larry Sabato’s 2014 Predictions: GOP to Gain Seats in House/Senate; Obama “is Going to get Lamer”
Of course you are correct. But the people the year before who told you your team was 1000000000 point underdogs and should not bother showing up sure as hell don’t get instant credibility when they tell you your team has no chance this year.
Their evidence of a dem wave is what? They won in VA and NJ, two red states. Yes, they also won some down ballot races in some places that do alarm me. That was before the tax cuts passed. What the hell case do the Dems have if the economy responds? Also their evidence is approval polls from the same people who brought you every other crap poll. By and large, polls are designed to shape opinion not reflect it
Also, note how they ignore all the special elections they lost? It is typical.
The 2018 mid-terms will depend on the mood of the country come August. If the President is able to hit the campaign stump touting a roaring economy, then I think the Dems are toast. So do the Dems. That is why Pelosi is trying desperately to talk down tax reform by having teach-ins and saying things like tax rebates are crumbs.
As for our “do nothing” congress, I am one who holds that we would all be better off if they did even less. Just sayin.
It seems preposterous now.
2010 and 2014 prediction in early part of year were accurate prediction of GOP gains.
Yes, I forgot about 2014. Of course the MSM didn’t care enough to make false predictions as Obama had a pen and a phone.
But I suppose my point was that the MSM takes what it needs and discards what it doesn’t. Was Sabato quotes by them in 2014? I seem to recall that the media theme in 2014 was about control of the Senate.
IN would be an easy pick up, but McConnell will do his usual and take out the outsider, Trump-supporting Mike Braun.
Messer and Rokita will wage all out war against each other, damaging both of themselves. (not sure which one McConnell considers the best butt-boy)
Meanwhile, (D) Joe Donnelly is and will be running to the right of all of them and could very well waltz right back in and Schumer will re-lock the chastity belt
Not easy, but if you try to think like a Democrat that could be their Plan.
Hopefully one of the liberal SCOTUS justices will pass before the midterms.
GOP had House and was expected to gain ( Gained 13)
March 2014 re Senate
SABATO: Exactly, and I think that’s a ridiculously large range. It is just not justified by what we see. It’s going to be a good Republican year. The question is, is it going to be a great Republican year? And there’s no forecaster on earth who can tell you that precisely right now.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/03/26/sabato_silver_prediction_ridiculous.html
If Democrats win the Senate it will be called the Obama years part three media all giddy.
Alabama was an extreme anomaly. Any other republican candidate would have waxed Jones. People from other states can not understand how much contempt Moore is held in here. I voted for him only because I didn’t want a dem. Actually I am glad he lost. He would be in Washington embarrassing the party and my state. He is a blowhard, camera seeking buffoon. His riding a horse to the polling place made me cringe. The man can not ride at all. He is not a principled conservative, just a show boater.
Many more GOP seats listed as toss up, lean & likely than GOP with 2 GOP listed as LeanDem
Jan 12, 2018
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2018-house/
Thanks for the info. Hanging onto the House will be tough for the GOP.
But it’s tough, but not impossible.
And there could be unforseen things that affect the election. For example, if Democrats overreach on impeaching Trump if they get control, and make that their whole campaign, it could backfire on them.
On the other hand, if the economic news of the last year takes a turn for the worse, the liberals and media will blame it all on Trump.
Yet again, some foreign crises and Trump effectively handling same, could cause voters to want to stick with the GOP.
This is all just Dem wishful thinking
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