Posted on 12/18/2017 6:34:17 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
(LEAD) N. Korea forecast to suffer severe economic trouble from March: state-run institute
2017/12/18 15:51
(ATTN: UPDATES with more info in last 4 paras)
SEOUL, Dec. 18 (Yonhap) -- As the strongest ever international sanctions begin to take effect, North Korea is expected to start suffering from severe economic difficulties around March next year, a state-run think tank said Monday.
"In addition to further toughened sanctions, an increase in North Korea's investment in conventional forces in the aftermath of military pressure stemming from the (Korean) deployment of American strategic assets is forecast to hit the North Korean economy seriously sometime after March next year," the Institute for National Security Strategy said in its 2018 prediction for North Korea. The institute is a research arm of the National Intelligence Service.
"March has been pinned for the timing for the (United Nations Security Sanction) Resolution 2375 adopted in September to take effect, given the U.N. sanctions committee's position that the effects of sanctions begin to be seen six to twelve months after their introduction," the institute noted.
Despite expected economic difficulties, it remains to be seen whether North Korea will reverse its position clinging to nuclear weapons development, according to the think tank.
"North Korea may put further focus on building the economy while holding on to its policy line of becoming the most powerful nuclear state," it said.
North Korea, however, is presumed to use South Korea's hosting of the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics as an opportunity to offer dialogue with South Korea, the institute predicted.
It also forecast that North Korea could go for additional military provocations if the fence-mending attempt ends in failure, possibly a test to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile as far as possible, a test launch of a submarine-launched ballistic missile or even its seventh nuclear test.
On whether the North would join the 2018 Winter Olympics to be held in South Korea, the institute said, "All the steps for participation have been completed except for (leader) Kim Jong-un's final decision."
In 2018, Kim would continue to ostracize and purge military elites and high-ranking officials, the institute also predicted.
"In the event of severe economic difficulties due to sanctions on North Korea, economic elites could possibly fall victim (of purging) as they are made to take responsibility," according to the institute. North Korean Premier Park Pong-ju could be possibly one of the targets, it said.
As part of on-going purging efforts, Hwang Pyong-so, previously chief of the General Political Bureau of the Korean People's Army, has been steeply demoted and is currently working at a government department, but he retained membership with the ruling party, while Kim Won-hong, formerly deputy chief at the military bureau, is working at a farm without any possibility of reinstatement, according to the think tank.
The national spy agency earlier said the two ranking military officials were punished for "impure" acts.
That is about right for the level of punishment of both figures. Kim Wong-hong rose rapidly by being the henchman of Kim Jong-un in the past. Now he is purged for good. According to another report, Hwang was demoted by six ranks, to Colonel. Previously he was a Vice Marshall. According to NK ranking system, the order of rank is Vice Marshal - 4 star - 3 star - 2 star - 1 star - Senior Colonel - Colonel.
P!
How hungry will the people have to be before they hang Kim Jung-Un?
The probability that there would be a mass uprising is very slim, unless they face another widespread famine.
Even China is getting ready for SHTF now. Building refugee camps.
KJU won’t have any friends by the time the final showdown happens.
Yeah... Like purifying toxic garbage enough will give you the world beating poison.
Except the world will tell you where to put that poison. Rudely.
I think if China just helps them escape (bowing to the inevitable they have been building refugee camps) then KJU will find himself quite “ronery.”
And, many will doubtless go to South Korea from there.
This might end in a whimper rather than a bang as KJU finds himself sans countrymen.
It is very dangerous to be a leader below Kim in North Korea. Their loyalty is assured by abject fear. The point is near when to oppose Kim may be less dangerous than supporting Kim.
The goal of communism is to have a poor economy, to keep the people impoverished and under control. Perhaps the author needs to understand communism before writing stuff like this.
......”How hungry will the people have to be before they hang Kim Jung-Un?”.........
Dead hungry....they will die before taking the creep out as history has shown in the 90’s.....they’re convinced it’s for the good of the country to ‘sacrifice’ their life for the good of the ‘collective’.
Now if or not they’re willing to do that again ..we’ll see.
They begin building the refugee camps every winter when there’s sanctions in effect.....because they know N.Koreans will cross the border when it gets too cold and no supplies for heat.
It’s our media as always pushing the ‘ getting ready for war’ story.
......”this may not be the end of purge, but the start of another one”.......
Looks like that ....Fat Boys making ‘examples’ so they don’t all run for the border!
Maybe a huge influx of refugees would solve their problems.
On whether the North would join the 2018 Winter Olympics to be held in South Korea, the institute said, “All the steps for participation have been completed except for (leader) Kim Jong-un’s final decision.”, on which sport he would like
to win the gold in. Hell of a Curler that kim, sweeps a
mighty broom in Juche style.
The NOrks have hit us with cyber attacks.
We need to hit them hard in the same way.,
YOu not show total loyalty to short round he will off you and your entire family.
Rocket Man may have to cut back to 5 meals a day from 6.
Maybe we should encourage him to up his calorie intake, hastening his demise.
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