If you're already an expert on Kuhn, then you are closer to that answer than I am, because you only need to study up on Toulmin. ;-)
But I think you can boil it down to two words: Kuhn's "revolution", Toulmin's "evolution", the difference being Toulmin's idea is slower, steadier, less chaotic & disruptive.
My guess is a student can find good examples of both and then weigh statistically or otherwise which seems more frequent.
You would disagree?
Yes. I’ve never heard of Toulmin, and absent something compelling I’m perfectly satisfied by the idea he’s guilding Kuhn’s lilly.
As I pointed out earlier, I see nothing about his thesis that can not be comfortably subsumed by Kuhn’s “Anomaly” phase.
What am I missing?