I’m sorry for interrupting your reauthoring of history flowing downstream from all the moral mandates as the result of a resounding confederate victory on the battlefield and your certitude for how that would have shaped the future. But, it’s kind of telling that the guy building his case on a mountain of assumptions has already excluded the other most obvious possibility that could have easily happened: no war at all.
Assumptions galore!
So I take it from your words that you concede my points in the hypothetical case of Confederates winning the Civil War, and now you wish to discuss another alternate hypothesis: there was no Civil war, what then?
Well, the only way there could be no Civil War was for the Union to grant every Confederate demand, from occupying Union forts like Sumter to subsuming Union slave-states like Kentucky, Missouri & Maryland, plus territories like Oklahoma & New Mexico.
But the only possible way the United States could meekly submit to such demands would be if it felt defeated & humiliated, just as if it had lost a Civil War to Confederates.
In other words, if the United States put preserving the peace as a higher priority than maintaining its own integrity, then it must act as if it were defeated in war, and that would produce the same global affects I mentioned above.