You seem pretty sure in your assumptions of the future of slavery had things happened differently. I’ll remind you, idea that Trump was not going to be president was an extremely safe historical assumption until about 9PM Nov 8, 2016. Thankfully, history was able to test and falsify that assumption.
I’ll admit that I’m only speculating, but I just don’t see slavery surviving long-term next to a separate, hostile abolitionist state. I think the attrition rate of escaping slaves as well as a maturation of Western society would soon make it untenable. The Mason-Dixon line is a lot shorter distance to freedom than the Canadian border.
No, not just "things happened differently", but for the specific case of Confederates winning the Civil War.
That is a huge change in the overall trajectory of history, which at the time was bending towards our current understanding of "all men are created equal and endowed by their Creator".
A Confederate victory would put the lie to those words and stand as a beacon of racial supremacy for the world to rally around.
Had Confederates proved successful, many others worldwide would take note and ally themselves with their fellow racial supremacists -- Central Europe & East Asia come to mind, but there would be plenty of others.
MountainWalker: "I’ll admit that I’m only speculating, but I just don’t see slavery surviving long-term next to a separate, hostile abolitionist state. "
Speculating, sure, but in your hypothetical alternate reality, remember that we've stipulated Confederates won the Civil War.
That makes them the dominate power, gives Confederates the whip-hand and provides them with leverage to dictate terms they like.
Confederate victory makes the Union weak & submissive, subject to the demands of their stronger Southern neighbor, eager to please the great military slave-power on their border.
Under such circumstances the World takes notice that a determined slave-power defeats weak-willed free men in battle and the World adjusts its behavior accordingly.
MountainWalker: "I think the attrition rate of escaping slaves as well as a maturation of Western society would soon make it untenable."
But we are talking about a victorious Confederacy dictating its own terms to a humiliated United States.
Surely those terms would include aggressive rounding up & return of fugitive slaves, right?