I must admit that there are two rather large nations, one in particular with multiple large axes to grind with the Euros, who could really upend the situation if they so choose. Any guesses, FReepers? ;-)
That said, what this may really boil down to is if a significant number of Catalans are willing to risk all. Or, to put it another way, to “mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our Sacred Honor”. If the pro-independence leaders are arrested and their followers slink off home, the rebellion will be crushed. As has been stated elsewhere, Catalonia has little to fight with, in the way of arms.
But, if 10’s of thousands of Catalans physically interpose themselves to protect the rebel leaders, and things turn violent, then as Catalan casualties mount, IF they hold fast, the Catalans’ cause will strengthen, and the 10’s of thousands may well increase to 100’s of thousands. Ultimately, what would Spain do? In this day and age, I do not think they can shell Barcelona.
Its over. Spain wins the short game. The Catalan Indy leaders have been given asylum in Belgium and they are there already.
That should put a chill on the EU.
Who wins the long game is up for grabs.