Skip to comments.Calm Down About Those Virginia Polls, Folks
Posted on 10/21/2017 7:52:39 PM PDT by Republican Wildcat
A Monmouth University poll released Tuesday generated a ton of headlines. It found Republican Ed Gillespie leading the Virginia gubernatorial race by 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent. Democrat Ralph Northam has led in most surveys of the race, and if Republicans win Virginia with President Trump so unpopular, you can expect a full-blown freakout among Democrats. Adding to the confusion: Quinnipiac University released a poll on Wednesday showing Northam up 14 percentage points, 53 percent to 39 percent.
So what the heck is going on in the Virginia governors race? Nothing. The split between the Monmouth and Quinnipiac results is big, but its not unnatural. In fact, its a sign that pollsters are doing their job.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
In any event, we've seen these "unwinnable" races in Virginia due to pre-election polling showing Democrats with "insurmountable" leads and Republicans then pulling out and not devoting much in the way of resources - in some cases almost no resources, only on election night for the results to be much closer than expected, even razor thin, indicating that if it had not been given up on and a full fledged effort were to be pushed, it may have been one. This happened 3 times in a row - the last governor's race, the Senate race in 2014 (especially - no resources, no GOTV effort - a supposed huge lead for the Democrat, and the result was a razor think loss on election night), and the presidential race in 2016...all of which had all but been written off then on election night - it's mysteriously much closer than expected. Who knows if that is true this time and which of these polls is accurate - if either one...but history indicates it shouldn't be written off.
Quinnipiac University is radical leftist sh!thole.
they probably polled the most radical leftist professors in the state.
I have no dog in this hunt. It’s a Communist vs. a globalist Bushian RINO. I pity the (once) good people of Virginia this shitty “choice.”
LOL this is the same buffoon who got the 2016 election ALL WRONG..leftists will NEVER understand that we don’t answer pollsters.
538 is a joke, Nate Silver is the posterboy for “we got it all wrong”.
The last Governor’s race was lost because the establishment would rather have Terry McAwful than a conservative.
They sabotaged Cucinelli at every opportunity.
The last Senate race was lost because Amnesty Ed refused to go after Warner’s vote for Rubio’s amnesty (because he supports amnesty, too)
This Governor’s race will be lost because not enough people believe Amnesty Ed has changed his mind, despite the ads.
I think the truth is simply that Virginia is lost (to blue). Controlled by 3 northern DC-suburb counties.
Hoping enough right-of-center Virginians make an effort to effectively shut down four more years of Dem rule in two weeks. Gillespie has excellent radio ads on many stations, especially during conservative talk radio about tax cuts, fighting sanctuary cities, and MS13 gangs.
True enough, NOVA outvotes ROVA.
I hope two terms of Trump can turn that around as the Obamadrones leave.
From the same fools that claimed Hillary had a 98% chance of winning....
Quite a few of these people have moved.
I’m watching the Graham Norton UK show. When he introduced guest Hillary Clinton, she was already sitting on the couch. The silly woman can’t ever walk anymore.
Forget the polls.....Voter turn out is what counts. Nate Silver & 539 is a joke. Bottom line, if the “Pubbies” come out and vote on election day, Ed Gillispie wins, hands down.
Just remember Republicans, Conservatives, Blue Dog Democrats, Independents, Trumpsters, etc., if Ed Gillispie beats Obama (failed POTUS), Democrat, Socialist, Communist, America Hater, Ralph Northam, The entire Democrat Party politically dies on the vine!!! End of story.
(may have been “won”, obviously, not “one”)
Oh not again - Rubio was not on voters minds in that race in the least and that wasn’t even an issue in that race. The race had been written off as unwinnable with no resources devoted to it - that is why it was lost - the margin in that race was so thin that if just some significant GOTV resources were devoted to a serious ground game for turnout that may have made the difference - not even an air war would have been necessary.
I understand you didn’t support that legislation or Rubio’s actions - I get it - neither did I - it was horrifically bad legislation. But I don’t connect Rubio to every event in every waking hour of life and neither should you. That is a very unhealthy and disturbing obsession you seem to have mentioning him on threads in which he nor immigration are even remotely a germane topic of discussion.
During the glory days of Bush II, Gillespie told the Manchester Union Leader that “the days of small government Republicans is over!”
Was he wrong, though?
This Governors race will be lost because not enough people believe Amnesty Ed has changed his mind, despite the ads.
he probably hasn’t.. Just like all the Rinos that voted for repeal before it mattered and ran on it.
Keeping the Cheap Labor Express running and preventing the citizens from stopping it are what the GOPe is all about.
Take off the blinders.
I worked to get out the vote for Dave Brat to get rid of the weasel Eric Cantor against all odds and we won.
The vote will get itself out when the candidate is good.
When the candidate is on the side of illegal aliens and their employers. they lose.
Gillespie is on the side of illegal aliens and their employers just like Cantor was.
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