S&P 500 is poised to make uncanny stock-market history—for doing almost nothing

MarketWatch ^ | 10/13/2017 | Mark Decambre

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How quiet is this record-setting stock market? By at least one measure, the S&P 500 index is on pace to register is lengthiest period of quiescence in more than two decades—and perhaps ever.

The broad-market benchmark hasn’t experienced a decline of at least 3% since Nov. 7, 2016. That 236-day span registers as the second-longest period without a single-session drop of that magnitude since the 241 days from Jan. 26, 1995 to Jan. 9, 1996, according to Pension Partners’ Charles Bilello (see table below):

Just eight more trading sessions sans a 3% daily drop—a fairly normal occurrence even in a bull market—and the S&P 500 SPX, will mark history.

An unnatural stretch of placid markets comes as the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial DJIA, +0.13% and the Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.22% have embarked upon one of the most resilient climbs to all-time highs. Neither a parade of hurricanes, earthquakes in Mexico, the threat of nuclear war in the Korean Peninsula, equity valuations seen as too rich, nor anxieties about the White House have disrupted this bull market rally that has entered its ninth year.

On Wednesday, all three main benchmarks finished at records. Thursday, however, features a bit of a pullback though equity benchmarks remain well within striking distance of ringing up more history.

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The S&P 500 is on pace for its ninth consecutive year in the green, which would match a similar streak from 1991 to 1999 (see table below).

[sparklite2]

My IRA is exactly where it was fifteen years ago.
The great thing about it is I have been making
lots of withdrawals over that time. Winning!

[mylife]

I’m making money now but not like in past years, and this bubble in the market makes me wary

[mylife]

There should be investment laws LOK

[mylife]

I’m Shorting Puerto Rico

[Leaning Right]

> this bubble in the market makes me wary <

I’m not a financial adviser, and I do not play one on TV. But it seems to me that this stock market rise is due in large part to the very low yield on bonds (that yield set indirectly by the Fed).

To many folks, taking a risk in the stock market seems worthwhile when the alternative is a bond that doesn’t even yield what real inflation is.

So in my uneducated opinion, the market bubble will pop when either there is a catastrophic event (like a major war in the Middle East), or a significant rise in bond yields.

[mylife]

Well I would agree they give us little alternative but to run in one direction.

I have always been a contratian and never run to a sure thing

[mylife]

Contrarian

[ChessExpert]

I was in the airport and heard CNN. We’re in the 9th year of economic recovery, according to CNN. Don’t be surprised if the good stock market news is attributed to Obama.

NYT “economist” Paul Krugman predicted a stock market plunge with Trump’s election. We might never recover, he said.

[mylife]

Krugman is a loser

[SeekAndFind]

RE: The market bubble will pop... with a significant rise in bond yields.

The main way I see that happening is when the Fed raises interest rates significantly. It hasn’t happened... yet.

[Leaning Right]

>The main way I see that happening (a stock market bubble pop) is when the Fed raises interest rates significantly. <

Agreed. Some learned folks believe that the Fed will never again raise interest rates significantly, because that will make federal borrowing more expensive. I tend to think that those learned folks are correct.

We are all pawns in some big game not of our making.

[bioqubit]

I regard all this as proof positive that obama suppressed the market in various ways. The DAY we knew the wicked bastard was done was the day the market took off. ‘Nuff said.

[SkyPilot]