Mash images for larger or more info! All info updates automatically
Posted on 09/16/2017 5:47:46 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Jose has been hanging around, waiting for attention in the wake of Hurricane Irma. Newcomer Maria threatens to impact the Caribbean Islands already devastated by Hurricane Irma, and brushed by Jose. Hurricane Jose threatens to brush or impact New England. Lee appears to be a fish storm at this time.
Mash images for larger or more info! All info updates automatically
| Jose | Maria |
 |
 |
 |
 |
> |
> |
 |
 |
| Public Advisories | Public Advisories |
| Forecast Discussions | Forecast Discussions |
Are they getting any reports beyond the one from this morning?
I just got home, haven’t checked the weather there but am wondering why a chopper hasn’t done a flyover, or if so, why no repodts?
Energy transfer from a compressible gas is a complex equation, but you can stick a V cubed component in there and not be ridiculed.
Maria had 160 sustained, at Dominica landfall, compared to Irma’s 185 on Barbuda.
V cubed in that comparison, would equate to 1.56 times as much energy.
Thing is...wind related structural failures are all about openings, and getting the roof tied down using steel in shear, not steel or wood in tension, definitely not simple gravity load.
Armor the openings, strap the roof down to concrete, and you have a chance. But if you don’t, around 130-ish, any piercings add interior pressure to lift, or the tension fastenings holding down the foil shaped roof let go, and really, whether you keep your walls from then on is how much they suffer when the roof comes off, and random chance.
With those factors in play, there’s just not that much difference between 160 and 185.
I think we’ll se what we saw on Barbuda. Intact with maybe glass, shingles and a bit of roof deck gone, roof gone but walls standing, roof and longer or corner wall sections missing, and the odd bare foundation.
FWIW...the Barbuda aerials didn’t come close to the PMs 90-95% assessment. A very few areas, yes, but overall, eyeball squint put numbers at 25-30% major damage, less than 10% bare pads.
Didn’t we get at least some reports sooner than this from Barbuda?
PS...no juice, people hurt and needing help, and any long distance radio antennas knocked out, even amatuer long wire types on poles or fences, usually add up to first word coming from outside intervention.
Casualties. They had less time to prepare. Mudslides. A few percent rate increases on each variable. Times 70 over what...3.5?
On the plus side. Maria didn’t really have time to pile up a solid Cat-5 surge.
I don’t think so. There,were reports,as the eyewall came ashore, then nothing till the PM’s overflight. Can’t remember if that was 5 pm following landfall or plus 24. Leaning towards 5 pm that second day.
I will never claim to be an engineer or physicist. However, Dominica topography would expect higher winds at higher elevations. Furthermore, as vegetation on hillsides is stripped, mudslides will impact structures with or without roofs.
Just heard that one Ham Operator, said that on a scale of 1-10, the damage level is a 9.
Well, *that* wasn’t in modern times. LOL
IIRC, utility crews from Canada were on our street. God bless them.
Wow. Brutal. I wonder if that encompasses the whole island. It’s small, 30 x16 miles, I think??
Agreed. There will be a toll. You have to figure the PM’s roof was screwed down tighter than the average Joe’s.
I always like to see damage for myself. Long term storm chasers still refer to “total devastation” covering all the way from branches everywhere and shingles missing, to bare slabs and roadbed.
Politicians hype reports to up the ante for grants and aid.
MSM has soap and diapers they need to sell.
Even video footage tends to skew towards heavier damage, obstructing the “average.” Uninterrupted flyover video, or full coverage still image mosaics give the least biased assessments.
It’s a shame, really, that in this “information age” we still can’t get spot info promptly, and even after a wait, much of the data is way less usable than it could be.
We have realtime reports from the high camps on Everest, via sat phone, but quake and hurricane zones can’t be bothered.
We sure don’t need no Maria down here I’m hoping it doesn’t come this way I can’t believe the powers would be let everyone into the keys today huge mistake I don’t know how we’re going to manage the comeback and all these tourists and everything else that’s just a huge screw up
I think you’re right. That week is a blur...
Pressure @ 916 ..dang.
Agree, and the word ‘devastation ‘ is abused, regularly.
Andrew, now THAT storm caused actual devastation.
Take care of you, rodguy. Make sure you take time to rest. The situation sounds overwhelming. Getting back to normal will be accomplished one day at a time, and by putting one foot in front of the other.
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MARIA EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR
THE U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND OVER PUERTO RICO ON
WEDNESDAY...
...PREPARATIONS AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL
FLOODING AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
And the Revelation 12 sign this week - insanity across the world.
We’re close - very close.
Just read on storm 2k...now down to 913....170mph winds...
Man oh man...
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.