Disclaimer: these are personal forecasts although fairly close to official warnings at this point in time.
Based on developments past 2-3 hours, Irma seems to be headed straight towards Key West rather than the west-central Keys, but anywhere west of Marathon will take a direct hit in terms of strong winds and surge. It will be bad but not as catastrophic Key Largo to Marathon, and moderately severe in southeast Florida.
Key West could sustain severe damage on the track Irma seems to be taking, especially if there is an intensification over the open water as the core moves away from the Cuban coast. Peak winds could reach 140-170 mph.
My personal guess on landfall in mainland Florida would be close to Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda tomorrow late afternoon. Peak winds will hit Naples and Fort Myers around mid-day Sunday. The track north of landfall may continue very close to the coast and the eye may pass right over Tampa Bay tomorrow evening.
Believe all worst case forecast scenarios and hope for the best in western parts of Florida. Be on high alert in eastern Florida but it does appear that impacts may be moderate more than severe from Miami to Jupiter.
Further north this will become an unusually strong inland tropical event with cat-2 winds possible almost as far north as Gainesville then cat-1 winds into southern or even central GA. I think the eye will stay over land north of Tampa Bay but there is a slight chance of it running up the coast as far as almost Appalachicola; more likely it will be just west of a line from Orlando to Atlanta GA.
If you’re in any part of west-central FL would advise to expect a major impact storm that has very little chance of swerving either side of the official NHS track. And also expect intensification, it won’t stay at cat-3. Too much fuel in that Gulf and Florida Strait waters.
I keep reading that this may even go more west than forecast due to a delay in making the turn. It could actually stay mostly over water all the way to the panhandle. Meaning more time to strengthen. Its all just still speculation at this point though.
Kind of following up on the other post asking about panhandle landfall.. At what longitude would you consider the point of no return that sends it fully into the Gulf towards the panhandle vs a sharp turn to Tampa?
I mean, personally, I think we reached that event horizon about an hour ago, but curious as to what your viewpoint is.