Kind of following up on the other post asking about panhandle landfall.. At what longitude would you consider the point of no return that sends it fully into the Gulf towards the panhandle vs a sharp turn to Tampa?
I mean, personally, I think we reached that event horizon about an hour ago, but curious as to what your viewpoint is.
The northwest turn appears to be underway, still think Irma is on track to move close to Key West around 0100-0200h EDT and to make a grazing landfall around Punta Gorda to Sarasota, but it won’t move very far inland if at all until it reaches the start of the panhandle. At this point I do not expect a panhandle direct hit but chances are definitely higher than at any time earlier. Will update my forecasts around midnight EDT.