Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.
Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.
Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
The Italian guy who taught me how to make some of his deli items told me that the truest mozzie is made with water buff milk.
Don’t know about american buffalo. I sure would not want to milk one of those!
I remember Georges. Scary storm for FL Gulf coast.
In the midst of all of the destruction and death about to fall on our nation, I was thinking about a trip to the Keys 10 years ago.
On Big Pine Key is the National Key Deer Refuge. They are an endangered species found in only one place in the world, the Florida Keys.
Big Pine Key is about halfway between Marathon and Key West.
https://www.fws.gov/refuge/National_Key_Deer_Refuge/
I really hope that the entire population isn’t wiped out by this hurricane.
Not good news. All the Big Prep has been on the Atlantic coast side from Keys all the way to South Carolina. Yet, with every new model the track is shifting to more and more of a Key West/Gulf Coast Storm. Miami and south Florida are still going to get pounded, but the shotgun is pointing more and more at Ft. Myers, Naples, Sarasota, Tampa.
The second bit of bad news is the eye replacement cycle seems to be nearing completion and a reorganization phase is going to follow.
We really need this storm to dip even further south and start interacting with Cuba to sap the fuel away for restrenghtening.
Those deer have survived plenty worse than this in the past, in order to have become a distinct species of deer that only exists in the Florida Keys. While the storm certainly doesn’t sound good, let’s not play into the MSM’s hands by going overboard.
Kindness should not give way to making yourself a victim.
I think that was a joke.
.
cll—Thank you very much for offering to followup on evac. conditions in St. Martin post-storm. You are the best!
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017
Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes
indicate that Irma’s intensity remains at 130 kt, although this
value could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been
oscillating around 927 mb.
The environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its
category 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles
could result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a
category 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an
increase in shear should induce gradual weakening.
Plane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of
Irma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12
kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24
hours. After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of
the subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and
northward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still
uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus
on the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted
just a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and
the HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very
close to each other.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will
continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards to the Bahamas through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will
spread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the
adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.
2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major
hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of
the state regardless of the exact track of the center.
3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,
where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat
of significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of
Florida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground
level is possible in this area. This is a life-threatening
situation. Everyone in these areas should take all actions to
protect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation
instructions from local officials.
4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.
Total rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of
20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through
Monday. The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida
peninsula and upper Florida Keys. Irma will likely bring periods of
heavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North
Carolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are
more prone to flash flooding. All areas seeing heavy rainfall from
Irma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 22.0N 75.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.4N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 22.8N 79.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.7N 80.3W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 25.0N 81.0W 125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1200Z 29.3N 82.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 34.0N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/1200Z 36.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
$$
Forecaster Avila
Whoa. St Martin and Co. are in for it.
It would have to be a strange track to get eyewall there. Would have to stay off the coast, then curve inland just to your south. Not impossible of course, but very unlikely. The current track is to your west over land. That means the eyewall winds will be gone and replaced by mostly weak tornadoes. There are a few stronger tornadoes in many hurricanes, but impossible to predict, and usually scattered. The mostly likely scenario for your location is cat 1 pass and cat 1 damage (or less if the center is further away).
The further west Irma goes, the more it will be weakened by Cuba.
Once Hurricane #Irma makes landfall, the eye will slowly fill or become less apparent. Winds around huge symmetric eye are extreme. pic.twitter.com/pSUolZdjU4— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 8, 2017
Am here in Upstate SC, as well. Bought last affordable generator on Tuesday at Lowe’s in Greer for $350. Next model up started at $900. We are prepared for storm conditions...our concern more for downed trees and power lines vs. flooding. 40-50 mph winds can wreak major havoc this way. We hope for the best, but are prepared for the worst. Stay safe!
THANK GOD we have Trump and a Republican governor that knows what he’s doing!
are you ok?
That is definitely the best case scenario. Interaction with Cuba is good news for us.
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