Posted on 06/03/2017 4:46:23 AM PDT by blam
Since the election there has been this perception among the American public that the economy is improving, but that has not been the case at all. U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter was just revised up to 1.2 percent, but that is even lower than the average growth of just 1.33 percent that we saw over the previous ten years. But when you look even deeper into the numbers a much more alarming picture emerges. Commercial and industrial loan growth is declining, auto loan defaults are rising, bankruptcies are absolutely surging and we are on pace to break the all-time record for most store closings in a single year in the United States by more than 20 percent. All of these are points that I have covered before, but today I have 12 new facts to share with you. The following are 12 signs that the economic slowdown that the experts have been warning about is now here…
#1 According to Challenger, the number of job cuts in May was 71 percent higher than it was in May 2016.
#2 We just witnessed the third worst drop in U.S. construction spending in the last six years.
#3 U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to an 8 month low in May.
#4 Financial stocks have lost all of their gains for the year, and some analysts are saying that this is “a terrible sign”.
#5 One new survey has found that 39 percent of all millionaires “plan to avoid investing in the coming month”. That is the highest that figure has been since December 2013.
#6 Jobless claims just shot up to a five week high of 248,000.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at theeconomiccollapseblog.com ...
Even Walmart and DIY box stores have adopted parts of Amazon approach, though the lack of depth in the back office IT does compare.
Many offer the web purchase with store pick-up. That service seems to vary according to store manager whims. If there is a pick up zone, all’s well, if the store doen’t make the pick in time the customer loses the advantage.
Lowe’s web site includes bay and aisle location to speed up locating items quickly, however each store varies as to accuracy of inventory feedback to data bases, so often the items are not there or returned to wrong position, or no longer in stock, small parts are the most affected.
IIRC, Walmart web also has third party sources for some items.
All in all, Amazons competitors are finding that that backend support has developed and constantly refined has greater cost than the competitors imagined, costs that troubled stores can’t afford. They’re playing Little League ball against World Series Champs.
that’s all about amazon
I remember when the internet offered the dream of buying airline tickets without leaving your home.
I then remember at the turn of the century, just to try it out, using this new online CD seller to buy a couple of CD’s It was all the rave at the time. The company was called Amazon.
Fast forward to today.
My daughters live in Seattle. One day one invited the other over to play video games. One problem. She only had one controller. So she goes into Amazon Prime and orders one. It shows up in an hour.
I live in the true sticks in central KY. I love the internet for buying things, but an interesting thing happened. My wife “accidentally” signed us up with prime and I found out it has free shipping regardless of order size. I went through a paradigm shift.
Amazon knows the make, model and year of my four vehicles. When I needed a new tail light for my FRS, they took me straight to the choices. $105 (dealer wanted $250) and a few days later it arrives. Same with spark plugs, brakes, etc.
Yesterday I received the voltage regulator for my v-twin rider mower. $13 vs $38 at the parts place. It took two days. I also bought a water pump for my tractor, a Digitech vocalizer for my band, lighting for my daughter’s wedding in California , delivered to her house, not mine.
ETC.
It is so convenient and fast that about the only thing I don’t buy online is food and gas.
And this is not just affecting brick and mortar. It is affecting other internet sites. It is also affecting “non-prime” products. Yep, I don’t just go to Amazon. I specifically look for Prime. It means I just order it and it shows up. The convenience factor, be it in a rural location or a city where traffic is a nightmare, is hard to beat. It’s even affected our use of Costco.com.
There is very little need for brick and mortar these days. The number of people figuring this out is growing exponentially. I suspect it will die almost overnight. And then there is the impact on “individual product” type internet sites.
We are seeing a consumer revolution. I’d not put stock in any brick and mortar right now. A LOT of them are going to go away.
And this is not necessarily a good thing.
The number of Americans renouncing citizenship hit an all time high. That would be WEALTHY Americans trying to escape the taxation. THAT is a REAL sign we are in trouble, but almost no one is talking about it.
In Southern California where I live, many businesses are shuttering and the store stays empty - sometimes for years.
Not mentioned is how California’s exorbitant minimum wage has helped to shut down these businesses - the local Subway just closed after 15 years.
I notice more and more businesses are putting in self-check out too, my new WalMart must have 15 self-check out stations but they’re in almost all grocery stores now. All gas stations are sel-service now.
Another convenience Amazon offers is their re-order “buttons.”
I have a neighbor who is handicapped and has toilet paper, paper towels, dog food, shaving cream and other necessary items delivered automatically every six weeks right to her home.
This is in heavy city traffic and she says has been a God-Send.
I’ve also seen “Amazon Fresh” trucks in San Francisco where moving one’s car and finding a parking spot - anywhere - can be a nightmare.
The need more CONSUMERS to force the price of everything up and keep steady demand for all goods & services. And, they need compliant labor to produce those goods...near slave labor. So, they use OUR tax dollars to give them incentives to come here and stay here. You have been seeing outrageous home prices, rent prices, car prices, etc. and it is because of the demand for those things by more people. Supply and demand.
Those driven only by the profit motive do not care what kind of philosophy comes with that influx of peoples. As a result, such a philosophy is doomed to destruction.
“No, construction every where I go is strong-—buildings, factories, not just homes. Intel putting in a new 4k job plant a few miles away, Johnson aircraft expanding, Casa Grande has two massive businesses going in.”
While I respect your observations, GDP numbers supersede local anecdotal observations. Our current regulatory and tax burdens are overwhelming (personal and corporate, at the Federal and State level). Until the GDP rises to a >3% rate on an annualized basis we are no better than Europe.
Yep, It’s great for those in the sticks and great for those where driving is terrible. Unless I’m mistaken, that is pretty much everywhere.
Maybe that is why Wal-Mart came up with Jet.com to compete against Amazon. They will die if they don’t.
BTW, below is my follow up post on that same musician’s site yesterday. A guy was arguing that “buying a musical instrument needs to be a physical experience for many”:
I don’t think there are enough customers that require that physical experience. And when it costs a lot more, even fewer will “need” it. Reminds me of “You’ve Got mail’, where the little shop thought they could change their business model and focus to compete with the big box store (Fox’s books). To me, that little store represents almost ALL brick and mortar stores and Fox represents not the internet, but Amazon, specifically.
There are some HUGE changes coming. And fast.
As the old adage said: “The markets climb a wall of worry.” And have they ever.
The trend lines are positive. Anecdotally, I’ve seen construction and commerce expanding quickly in central FL coast to coast.
Maybe not robust, but better in the last quarter, and the quarter ended Mar.
The St.Louis fed (FRED) is probably updated by now (third revision).
5.56mm
I will not buy shoes on line unless it is a model I have previously purchased and found comfortable. There are certain clothing items that have to be tried on for me.
But I did order 2 pair of replacement dress shoes this week. By looking up the exact shoe, I think the fit will be ok. I hope.
Think about it this way. You make $4000 a month, payroll deductions take about 25% so you take home $3000, insurance (which employers used to just pay) is $1000 a month, you have a $1200 house payment. You are left with $800 to eat, pay the rest of your bills, etc.
I have been a manager in a new car store since 1988, it is the worst I have ever seen it right now.
Zappos ships both ways free——you can try on and ship back-—order several at once and keep the ones that fit.
.
>>Gloom, despair, and agony on end......
If it weren’t for bad luck, we’d have no luck at all<<
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkzE23pyME4
The anti-Trumpers will stop at nothing and I mean nothing to discredit our President, including taking down this country. Such shame.
Good point. Are we just seeing the creative destruction of brick and mortar as the net takes over? That’s part of the equation but there’s more...
Looks like more of the same slow but positive economy for now. Given the demographic condition we will finally improve into a normal growth economy during the period 2022-2025.
We still have a ways to go. We are still working off the excess capacity of having 80 million people reaching their peak spending age at about the same time. Now that 80 million group has passed peak spending age. The new group coming up is in extended adolescence, and spending on student loan payments, which produces nothing for the economy.
The cross-current mean continued stagnation for now.
Until Trump can bludgeon congress into cutting the corporate tax rate and repatriating the offshore money we will never experience the business revival necessary to put 94 million people back to work.
“I have wondered if the huge surge in internet sales is a fad we are going through soon to fall back to a more balanced position. Any thoughts??”
Buggy whips will make a comeback! Those infernal automobiles will never catch on!
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