The second special election in NH was a GOP HOLD not a gain, despite the confusing headline about “winning back” the seat. It was previously held by Republican Andre Martel, who died in late December. Boy what a long vacancy, silly, shouldn’t take so long.
Anyway, while hardly a disaster these loses in NH and NY are certainly something to feel very bad about, strongly Republican seats, it shouldn’t have mattered that democrats had high turnout and how much they spent, where where the Republicans? Yeah the NH seats are so tiny they aren’t good samples and that one was close, but the margin in NY was embarrassing, 57% D in a Trump 60% district.
If these were more marginal districts I’d be more “meh” and again it’s not a catastrophe but there is no spinning that it’s totally uncool and raises the alert level.
Yes, I thought that was a gain of a Dem seat in NH. That’s what I get for not double-checking the prior incumbent. In any event, these races are so parochial that unless we have someone on the ground in the district to tell us the story, we can only speculate why Republicans failed to turn out in sufficient numbers.
I do believe the Dems may be putting inordinate amounts of resources to try to win back anything, and that can account for their success. I would bet you a yummy glazed doughnut that the seat in NY saw the Dems and their allies way outspend the Republican.
I’m reminded of the situation here in Tennessee in 2002 when we had the open Governorship. By all accounts, the Republican nominee (Van Hilleary) should’ve won, but because he was badly short on cash (thanks to the outgoing Republican Governor running a rich RINO in the primary), it gave the billionaire Democrat ex-Mayor of Nashville (who had been trounced in 1994) an opportunity to just simply buy the race in key areas of the state, enough to give him a narrow victory. Had Hilleary been on equal footing or even just 75c to Bredesen’s $1, Bredesen would’ve lost again.
I get it but so far no one has told me anything about the races & candidates thenselves. That does have just a little to do with it.
Did the Rs campaign as Trumpists? Were local issues key?