[kabar]

Demography is destiny. Much of the shift you describe has to do with the changing demographics of these counties fueled by mass immigration. We have brought in 35 million legal permanent immigrants since 1990, 87% of whom are minorities as classified by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Dem. Every year we bring in 1.1 million legal permanent immigrants. Non-Hispanic whites, the GOP base, are declining as a percentage of the population. In 1970 they were 89% of the population; today they are 63%; and by 2043 they will be 50%.

In 1970 one in 21 was foreign born in this country; today, it is a little less than one in 8, the highest it has been in 105 years; and within a decade in will be one in 7, the highest in our history.

[Wallace T.]

A lot of the slippage in urban counties is due to immigration, legal or not. Looking at the four urban Texas counties in the table (Dallas, Tarrant, Harris, and Bexar), Trump underperformed Romney. In Harris County, for example, he received 42% of the vote, vs. 50% for Romney. Ditto for Maricopa County, Arizona (48% for Trump; 56% for Romney). Cook County, Illinois saw a similar decline (21% vs. 25%). Trump actually increased his percentage vs. Romney in the New York City boroughs of Staten Island, Brooklyn, and Queens as well as suburban Suffolk County, but that is due to home state advantage. You are correct respective to the effect of both Latin American and Asian voters. The Hispanic vote is demographically similar to the black vote, and the Asian vote resembles the pattern of the Jewish vote.

I am nonetheless concerned about the increased liberalism among white voters in suburban areas. If you go back to the 1976 Presidential election, you will see that the suburban counties around Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, and Washington, DC, all supported Ford vs. Carter. They mostly supported Hillary Clinton last year. In the 1980s through the 2000s, the Democrats lost the rural and small town areas of the South, except where blacks or Hispanics predominate. Carter carried these areas in 1976. That year was the last one in which the Democrats carried Texas in a Presidential race. In this election cycle, the Democrats lost most of the manufacturing, mining, and farming areas of Appalachia and the Great Lakes region. However, the slippage in upper middle income whites is notable, in places like Orange County, California, Collin County, Texas, and Cobb County, Georgia. Some of the loss was the effect of defections to the Libertarian Party, which received 3-4% of the vote in these suburban counties, possibly due to sorehead Cruz supporters or RINO Never Trumpers.