I am nonetheless concerned about the increased liberalism among white voters in suburban areas. If you go back to the 1976 Presidential election, you will see that the suburban counties around Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, and Washington, DC, all supported Ford vs. Carter. They mostly supported Hillary Clinton last year. In the 1980s through the 2000s, the Democrats lost the rural and small town areas of the South, except where blacks or Hispanics predominate. Carter carried these areas in 1976. That year was the last one in which the Democrats carried Texas in a Presidential race. In this election cycle, the Democrats lost most of the manufacturing, mining, and farming areas of Appalachia and the Great Lakes region. However, the slippage in upper middle income whites is notable, in places like Orange County, California, Collin County, Texas, and Cobb County, Georgia. Some of the loss was the effect of defections to the Libertarian Party, which received 3-4% of the vote in these suburban counties, possibly due to sorehead Cruz supporters or RINO Never Trumpers.
First, you are making my point for me. The trend line for the top 50 counties in the country is more and more Dem, which correlates to the percentage of foreign born. The snapshot every four years proves it.
As far as Trump underperforming Romney, it is worth looking at Hillary's performance versus Obama's in those counties and how much the presence of a fairly strong Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, hurt Trump.
In TX, Hillary received 43.24% of the vote compared to Obama's 41.35%, almost a 2% swing. Romney received 57.13% of the vote compared to Trump's 52.23%. The "other" vote in 2016 was 4.06% compared to 1.52% in 2012. Hillary received 565,000 more votes than Obama in 2012. Trump received 115,000 more votes than Romney.
In 2012 Obama beat Romney in Harris county, 587,044 to 586,073. Other received 15,468 votes. In 2016 Hillary beat Trump 707,914 to 545,955. This is ominous and reminds me of how Fairfax County, VA became a Dem stronghold as the demography changed.
. Ditto for Maricopa County, Arizona (48% for Trump; 56% for Romney).
In 2012, Obama got 44.45% of the vote compared to Hillary's 44.58% in AZ. Romney received 53.48% of the vote compared to Trump's 48.08%. The difference was the "other" vote, which totaled 6.67% in 2016 compared to 2.07% in 2012. It is also worth noting that 300,000 more votes were cast in 2016 than in 2012. Trump received 20,000 more votes than Romney.
In Maricopa County Trump received 47.7% of the vote to Hillary's 44.8%. 7.5% of the vote went to "Other" including McMullen. In 2012 Romney received 54.3% compared to Obama's 43.6%. So Hillary actually outperformed Obama. However, it was by a little more than 1%. Maricopa will continue to trend more Dem as the demographics continue to change.
I am nonetheless concerned about the increased liberalism among white voters in suburban areas. If you go back to the 1976 Presidential election, you will see that the suburban counties around Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, New York, and Washington, DC, all supported Ford vs. Carter. They mostly supported Hillary Clinton last year.
The suburbs are becoming less and less white. I can tell you that firsthand having lived in the suburbs of Washington DC. Prince George's County is predominantly black. Montgomery County is becoming more Hispanic. Fairfax County now has one-third of the residents being foreign born. Arlington County is more Hispanic. They are all Dem strongholds. Fairfax County went Dem for the first time in 40 years in 2004 with Kerry. Yes, there are plenty of white liberals who populate the Inside the Beltway crowd, but the rising numbers of minorities are what are influencing the electoral results the most.
If the US does not significantly reduce LEGAL IMMIGRATION from the current 1.1 million legal permanent immigrants a year, the Dems will be the permanent majority party nationally within a decade. NC is already a battleground state and GA will soon be one as well. Once TX goes, it is all over for the Reps. VA is already gone and I watched it happen over a 30 year period.