The reason you are wrong about this is that United is guilty of breaching the law. Its not just optics. United cannot afford to let this play out in court. My guess is they offer $3-$5 million. Its a cheap way out.
Agreed, and it may be accepted - if Dao's litigation team calculates a larger gain with a separate claim/lawsuit against Chicago.
It will be interesting to see how Dao's litigation team aligns the defendants. United, with its public face and checkbook in hand, would appear to be the easy money and Chicago the deep pockets.
IMO, it seems clear airport security used unreasonable force and caused the greater, longer-lasting physical and emotional damage. It has been reported that security force is not on a par with regular LEO's and not as qualified.
(These guys were like untrained bar bouncers. Well-trained operators could have "escorted" Dao happily off the flight with a simple arm, wrist or finger lock.)