Six Ways Fillon's Woes Have Shaken French Election

Rightwing presidential candidate Francois Fillon appears to have won his battle to stay in France’s election, but his fake job scandal will have a lasting impact on the vote and beyond.

Fillon, 63, won unanimous backing from leaders of his Republicans party on Monday night giving him hope he has finally silenced those who have consistently called on him to step aside over the last six weeks.

The conservative ex-premier has been in torment since January 24 when revelations first emerged that he had paid his wife and children hundreds of thousands of euros from public funds — with little evidence of their work.

First round of voting now just 6 weeks away.

The candidates and their (very) rough USA equivalents:

Le Pen = Trump

Fillon = Jeb Bush

Macron = Clinton

Melanchon = Sanders

Le Pen is receiving exactly the same type of dishonest treatment from the French media as Trump received/receives over here. Check out this beauty from AFP:

"The way that Trump has defied the justice system and attacked the media, calling them ‘fake news’, I think in a way it’s encouraging Fillon and Marine Le Pen to copy” Herve Le Bras, a veteran political watcher and demographer, told AFP last week.

Most observers in Europe believe Macron is now a lock to win in round 2. Hmmm, where have I heard that before?

I watched a French professor talk on Macron back in January...in basic terms, describing Macon as a ‘empty suit’. No one knows much of the guy...he has a six-line resume. Beyond three years as a finance minister, a couple of years as a big-time investment manager for the Rothschild Bank, and an audit manager...that’s it. He’s never run for office and been seen in the public eye.

He’s made two opposite end platform statements...(1) he wants to bring a huge number of new policemen for France (seen as a great positive). But then (2) he wants France to be an open door for immigration and that all migrants are a good thing for France. The general working-class French guy just doesn’t believe the second platform.

If you go to polls...Macron beats Le Pen by 10-points. If it’s Macron versus Fillon...then Macron beats him by three or four points. Fillon has one huge negative in the general public besides the fake pay situation for his wife over the last decade. He wants to terminate 500,000 government service jobs, and those folks (their families and friends included) aren’t happy with this position.

I would suggest one odd feature of this election. Le Pen has tuned up her public forum/argument skills to the ninth degree over the past year. Every argument that you draw her into...she resorts to what is best for the French people (not necessarily what’s best for the EU, or for immigration). This theme is very noticeable over the past two months if you watch interviews of her. Fillon has virtually no way of winning at this point. So it’s strictly a Le Pen versus Macron election as far as I can see.

Lepen is only Trump in some very superficial ways (immigration, anti-establishment, anti-mondialist). Her program is not Trumpian but socialist and environmentalist. She has stolen the Front National from here father who is Trumpian.
Fillon is too much polished but his program is much more sensible and well thought out. He has been lynched by the lying media, the phony pollsters (they predicted he won’t be nominated by the party and he ended up with 2/3 of the primaries votes!) and his own party traitors, much like Trump.
If the mud sticks to the wall (which I don’t think, the media here in France being as discredited as in the US, if not more) and he loses the election first round, Marine Lepen will have high chance to win on the second round. I won’t cry a river for this outcome either, a big kick in the a.s of the establishment is always a good thing.

Macron is toast after his many gaffes, eg when his says, in Algeria, that the French have committed a “crime against humanity” for the colonisation of Algeria. His popularity is only in the polls and in the talking circles.
Around me, the sentiment is the guy would sell his mother for a vote, I have seen no one condoning him for spitting on his own people.

Le Pen = Trump

I don't see that, even in a rough way. I saw a lenghtly interview with Le Pen some time ago. Yes, there is a refreshing level of taking national interest seriously. But there is also a very strong socialist streak. She wants to nationalize key industries etc. She is literally a national socialist. (Of course not like the NSDAP and Hitler.)

So I don't see any Trump equivalency. Though she might be the best choice for France's future at this point.

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