Excellent analysis, but I disagree with one concept the article postulated.
“So just why were there so many voters who switched from Barack Obama to Donald Trump?”
I don’t think there were many people who went from Obama to Trump. It is more likely that people who did not vote in 2008 and 2012 voted in 2016 and vice versa. They are a different set of people. We know both candidates brought lots of new voters out.
Agree with you!
Different turnout model.