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The 'Taiwan Card' Is a Busted Flush, Beijing Believes
PJ Media ^ | December 4, 2016 | David P. Goldman

Posted on 12/04/2016 2:10:39 PM PST by Kaslin

President-elect Trump's brief telephone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen drew a stronger reaction from the American mainstream media than it did from Beijing. The official China Daily entitled its editorial yesterday "No need to over-interpret Tsai-Trump phone call," writing:

For Trump, it exposed nothing but his and his transition team's inexperience in dealing with foreign affairs. If he could make the unusual action due to lack of proper understanding of Sino-US relations and cross-Straits ties he will have to recognize the significance of prudently and appropriately addressing these sensitive issues after being inaugurated.

Is Beijing just trying to put a good face on a troubling situation? Probably not, according to some perspicacious China analysts. The military balance in the region has shifted towards China's favor since 1996, when Bill Clinton sent two aircraft carriers into the Taiwan Straits in response to Chinese missile tests. Beijing thinks the "Taiwan card" is a busted flush.

First, China probably has two different ways to sink an American carrier, through quiet diesel-electric submarines, and with carrier-killer surface-to-ship missiles. There is some controversy about China's ability to hit a moving target in open ocean, but if China cannot do so now, it likely will develop the capacity soon.

Second, China will acquire Russia's S-400 air defense system, with a 400-kilometer range that can sweep the skies over Taiwan. The Russian system can handle 100 targets simultaneously. The system probably will not be in place until 2018, but China is patient. Within a few years China probably will have the capacity to control both the surface and the air around Taiwan.

America, to be sure, has a variety of prospective countermeasures. Lasers and rail guns eventually may be able to defeat surface-to-ship missiles, and carrier-based drones may extend the range of U.S. carriers beyond the 800-mile range of China's DF-21D missile. But funding for these and other programs is inadequate to reverse China's growing advantage in the foreseeable future.

That is certainly how China's position is understood by America's erstwhile allies in the region. Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte said in Beijing Oct. 20, "Both in military, not maybe social, but economics also, America has lost." Speaking to Chinese officials at the Great Hall of the People, Duterte said, "In this venue, your honors, in this venue, I announce my separation from the United States."

America can restore its strategic advantage, but it will need a determined and comprehensive national effort to do so.

Hysterical Reaction to Taiwan President's Call to Trump

 


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: china; taiwan
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1 posted on 12/04/2016 2:10:39 PM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

So China is going to sink an aircraft carrier over a phone call?

It’s just a small move to make them fidget in their chairs. Our press just isn’t used to playing second fiddle.


2 posted on 12/04/2016 2:16:04 PM PST by ImJustAnotherOkie
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To: Kaslin
For Trump, it exposed nothing but his and his transition team's inexperience in dealing with foreign affairs.

These goofs are using the same analysis as the Hillary people, i.e. he is dumb and "not qualified". Thats all they've got?

3 posted on 12/04/2016 2:17:06 PM PST by glorgau
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To: Kaslin; All

Too many pundits do not realize there’s soon to be a “new sheriff in town.”


4 posted on 12/04/2016 2:19:58 PM PST by Cobra64 (Common sense isn't common any more.)
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To: ImJustAnotherOkie

The United States does not recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. period.


5 posted on 12/04/2016 2:20:41 PM PST by RC one (The 2nd Amendment is a doomsday provision, one designed for those exceptionally rare circumstances)
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To: Kaslin
Within a few years China probably will have the capacity to control both the surface and the air around Taiwan.

How well could China deal with unrestricted targeting of any commercial shipping bringing supplies to China, or taking China's products to market?

6 posted on 12/04/2016 2:21:39 PM PST by PapaBear3625 (Big government is attractive to those who think that THEY will be in control of it.)
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To: glorgau
“These goofs are using the same analysis as the Hillary people, i.e. he is dumb and “not qualified”. Thats all they've got?”

Actually, the questions they should be asking are: 1) How did we ever get to the point at which we'd be worried about a response from China to a phone call? 2) How incompetent have been the academic economists we've had over the past several decades such that we've let China become an economic bully to whom we owe a ton of money? As a follow up to that question, why would we ever again select people with the same background to be economic advisors? 3) Are we that weak, such that we have to worry about a military response to a phone call?

7 posted on 12/04/2016 2:26:17 PM PST by pieceofthepuzzle
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To: PapaBear3625
Not to mention imports of oil and the removal of oil storage facilities near the coast.

The US (plus Japan) has a much superior naval force, and the US would be far less affected by disruptions in trade associated with conflict in East Asia.

8 posted on 12/04/2016 2:30:35 PM PST by pierrem15 ("Massacrez-les, car le seigneur connait les siens")
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To: Kaslin

The writer of this piece, known as “Spengler”, is a #NeverTrump member. He always tries to make Trump look foolish.

It is ridiculous to talk about China taking out an American aircraft carrier without considering what doing such a thing would bring down on China. As one of the commenters noted, “How many cities does China want to lose for one carrier?”

Besides, the Chinese are not loved in the Pacific Rim better than the USA. What about Japan, India, Australia, and many other nations? Would they prefer the Chinese be in control of the Pacific? I don’t think so.

Trump’s phone call took control of the strategic situation concerning China before he was even inaugurated. The man is a genius!


9 posted on 12/04/2016 2:30:53 PM PST by DrPretorius
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To: Kaslin

China has an ‘out’ here if they are smart enough to take it. All they need to do is recognize that Trump is not yet president. I think that they’ll take it.


10 posted on 12/04/2016 2:40:44 PM PST by Tallguy
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To: Kaslin

“For Trump, it exposed nothing but his and his transition team’s inexperience in dealing with foreign affairs. “

Uh, yeah, China. Keep on telling yourself that: you’re just whistling pass the graveyard if you really do believe that.


11 posted on 12/04/2016 2:41:54 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Kaslin
The 'Taiwan Card' Is a Busted Flush, Beijing Believes

Maybe so, but at least they are playing with a full deck.

12 posted on 12/04/2016 3:19:01 PM PST by DoughtyOne (jcon40, "Are we be coming into the age of Sanity?")
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To: Kaslin
 
 
The Chicoms are about to meet their match when it comes to negotiations. They've been used to a parade of pushovers for about what, the past 20+ years or so - that's about to get re-adjusted.
 
 

13 posted on 12/04/2016 4:08:50 PM PST by lapsus calami (What's that stink? Code Pink ! ! And their buddy Murtha, too!)
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To: Kaslin

The left in the US need safe space for themselves. It is not diplomatic to do anything that would upset the fragile dialectical balance of modern society. The US Left is really terrified of a new paradigm in which they have no instructions on what to say or what to do.

Talking to Taiwan was not on their radar. It so greatly upsets them that Trump pulled off this sneak attack on the delicate modern carefully balanced rube-goldberg society.


14 posted on 12/04/2016 4:13:56 PM PST by spintreebob
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To: lapsus calami

Since Nixon


15 posted on 12/04/2016 4:38:09 PM PST by ari-freedom (Chicken Little Concerned for Trump people are almost as annoying as NeverTrumpers!)
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To: All

I’m not surprised that Trump would be called by a Taipei personality.


16 posted on 12/04/2016 5:21:57 PM PST by Peter ODonnell (Listen for my radio call-in program on channel A in your brain, yes caller ... I'm listening)
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To: Kaslin

Trump has opened negotiations with Beijing. Beijing has responded. Both understand the process.


17 posted on 12/04/2016 5:24:58 PM PST by arthurus (Mrs Clinton is The Great Conniver.)
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To: catnipman

They don’t really believe that in Beijing. Beijing is negotiating as is Trump.


18 posted on 12/04/2016 5:27:31 PM PST by arthurus (Mrs Clinton is The Great Conniver.)
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To: Kaslin

Chinks are about to learn that they will have to get used to the way Mr. Trump does things, not the other way around. Ifeel like we are living in a time machine and Trump is taking us back to a time when America and Americans amounted to something worthwhile.


19 posted on 12/04/2016 7:20:18 PM PST by Lion Den Dan
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To: ari-freedom
 
 
I was thinking more along the lines since Reagan left office. That's when the real damage ramped up.
 
 

20 posted on 12/04/2016 8:05:09 PM PST by lapsus calami (What's that stink? Code Pink ! ! And their buddy Murtha, too!)
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