Well, the Su-24 incident hasn't ignited a war, though it was a classic situation when a war breaks out. Moreover, Russia's main supply route (still not the only possible) is via the Turkish straits. I think, these facts are a good reason for Russia to be cautious. As for Turkey, Russia is one of the largest customers of its beach resorts and vegetable farms. Erdogan seems to have needed a reminder of this, which has been the Russian visa and food import sanctions.
Thanks for the additional scenario factors. The situation over there is very worrisome.