I don’t know the numbers offhand and can’t seem to find them from another source. I’m surprised OurCampaigns doesn’t have them. I presumed it was Jerome Chaffee, the GOP incumbent, who ran again in 1874, but I can’t find a confirmation in his biography that he ran. I checked a more extensive bio of Sen. Thomas Patterson, but no mention of his opponent (it did mention he worked hard to secure statehood - the presumption was that the Dems had a shot at winning the state).
I think there was a general feeling leading up to the 1876 election that the Dems had a leg up and that it was time for a change (add in the restoration of some of the Southern states). It had been 20 years since they had won the Presidency. Of course, this turned out to be likely the most fraudulent election in the history of the Republic, with chicanery on both sides (so much so that I’m not sure who the legit winner was). Hayes, of course, had to cut that deal to end Reconstruction, enacting Tilden’s (and the Dems) central cause, so it was a pyrrhic victory for the GOP and an epic loss for Blacks counting on their rights and enfranchisement being protected.
I’ve read it speculated that if all Blacks were allowed to vote in the neo-conderate states, Hayes probably/maybe wins the popular vote (3 point margin for Tilden, bigger than Shillery’s fake margin), picks up MS, holds LA and SC, but supposedly loses a fair election in Florida.
MS (8 electors) was bigger than FL (4) (and CO (3) combined) at the time, so Hayes, according to that. Interesting that Tilden chose to retire when he could have walked into the rat nomination in 1880.
CE Hugues may have also won the popular vote in 1916 if Blacks in the South were allowed to vote Republican, not to mention Blaine in ‘84 and Harrison in ‘92. Maybe leaving only Wilson’s 1912 plurality as the only dem win between Buchanan and FDR.