What’s your take on what will happen with this latest judicial assault on redistricting.
Ordering a new off year election is really beyond the pale.
The state is appealing to SCOTUS; I don’t know if the 9th member will be confirmed by the time they hold oral arguments.
I think both the legal claim (that the legislature unconstitutionally packed blacks (and in the case of one district, Lumbee Indians) into oddly shaped districts) and there edy (holding a new election less than one year into te term set forth in the state constitution) are inconsistent with SCOTUS precedent. I’ve studied those state-house districts, and almost all of them are between 50% and 53% black, close to the bare minimum to avoid a legal claim that the state violated the VRA’s prohibition on “retrogression” (reducing the number of districts in which a protected minority can elect menbers of its choice); remember, the VRA is still in effect, and only the preclearance requirement was declared unconstitutional (BTW, the district lines already had been precleared by Obama’s DOJ before SCOTUS struck down the preclearance requirement). The redistricting plan created new minority-majority districts but did not pack excessive numbers of blacks into any particular districts (which was the claim in the recent cases in which districts were declared unconstitutional because redistricters created, say, one 70%-black district and one 20%-black district (which would result in the election of a black Democrat and a white Republican) instead of creating two 45%-black districts that, given increased black turnout during the past decade, likely would result in the election of two black Democrats. In fact, NC redistricters pointedly avoided doing that in Forsyth County (Winston-Salem), where they created two house districts that each were around 43% black instead of packing blacks into a single 70%-black district and drawing a second district were the black percentage was only 16% or so. So I don’t think that the district lines for the NC state house wouls have been deemed unconstitutional by SCOTUS prior to Scalia’s death, and presumably wouldn’t either once Trump nominates and obtains confirmation for Scalia’s replacement, but I don’t know whether the four liberal Justices will vote against the redistricting plan and let the lower-case decision stand if oral arguments are held prior to SCOTUS being back to nine members.
As for the remedy, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a court ordering a new election instead of waiting until the next regular election (which only is two years away; we’re not talking about four- or six-year terms here), and that should get struck down even by an eight-member SCOTUS.
But even if NC loses the appeal, the recently elected legislature, with 2/3 GOP suoermajorities in both houses, would be able to redraw the lines so that the districts are more compact but still guve the GOP over 60% of the districts. Maybe they won’t have the 2/3 to override vetoes (for regular legislation) by the RAT Governor that will take office if we lose the recount/lawsuit, but remember that the NC constitution diss not empower the governor to veto redistricting bills, so the GOP still would be able to draw favorable district lines not only now but after the 2020 Census as well.