The Bavarians will not help Merkel out. I have family there near the Austrian border and they are pissed beyond expression.
The Bavarians (aka the CSU Party) would typically bring 8.5 points of the national election with them. Since the war, those two conservative parties could usually get near 30-percent or more of the national vote. For those who aren’t aware, there is a under-the-table agreement. The CDU won’t campaign in Bavaria (one of the 16 states of Germany). The CSU in return....won’t campaign in 15 of the German states.
There are probably a dozen different scenarios where the CSU might throw this ‘pokergame’ into an entirely new way, and shock Merkel. The majority of CSU folks? Anti-Merkel and the immigration business is problem number one.