The Bavarians (aka the CSU Party) would typically bring 8.5 points of the national election with them. Since the war, those two conservative parties could usually get near 30-percent or more of the national vote. For those who aren’t aware, there is a under-the-table agreement. The CDU won’t campaign in Bavaria (one of the 16 states of Germany). The CSU in return....won’t campaign in 15 of the German states.
There are probably a dozen different scenarios where the CSU might throw this ‘pokergame’ into an entirely new way, and shock Merkel. The majority of CSU folks? Anti-Merkel and the immigration business is problem number one.
I don’t know the players but the people on the ground that I know are breaking to the AfD in a big way. My contacts are mainly near the Bad Tolz, Tegernsee area. Notwithstanding the legacy parties, this whole refugee thing has turned the tables just as Trump has here. Everyone around the world is watching and learning.