Posted on 11/10/2016 11:44:38 AM PST by Strac6
Once-obscure political science professor Helmut Norpoth is now basking in the sweet glow of success — and newfound fame — after confidently predicting way back in February that Donald Trump was virtually guaranteed to win the 2016 presidential election.
Norpoth, a faculty member at Stony Brook University, announced his prognostication that Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton some 262 days ago. He asserted a confidence level of 97 percent in what he calls the Primary Model, he said.
On Tuesday, the professor’s prophecy was proven right. Voter intent doesn’t matter, he said. Instead, the things that really matter are excitement among primary voters and certain cyclical patterns.
“Nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through,” Norpoth told the website.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth initially said in February, according to The Statesman, the campus newspaper at Stony Brook, a public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told an alumni audience. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“Take it to the bank,” he added.
Norpoth specifically predicted that Trump had a 97 percent chance of beating Democrat Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders, a socialist running as a Democrat.
In the many months since Norpoth first trumpeted his forecast, he has made countless media appearances.
The professor did turn out to be considerably wrong about the voting percentages. He said Trump receive 54.7 percent of the popular vote to Clinton’s 45.3 percent.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his data pointed to a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — would win the 2016 presidential election.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and excitement. It also focuses on patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted John F. Kennedy against Richard Nixon.
He has said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s wins and Barack Obama’s wins.
In total, Norpoth observed, the forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.
His quote:
“Nearly all of us say, oh yes, I’ll vote, and then many will not follow through,” Norpoth told the website.
I used his words. Didnt put mine in. NEARLY ALL. HIS WORDS.
Nixon said no, the nation thought it has elected the Bold and Beautiful Kennedy. Such disclosure would make Nixon president of an ungovernable country... and the Electoral Collage might still have gone for JFK.
I know this because, after retiring from the Bureau, two of the SAs involved became lecturers at my law school.
...
The end result was the Kennedys got killed, Nixon became president of an ungovernable country and had to resign. But other crooked politicians (such as the surviving Kennedy) successfully began their campaign of dumbing down the population so it would repeatedly vote crooks into office.
Nixon won in ‘60. Everyone knew JFK’s “win” was the result of cheating. His father said, “Don’t buy a single vote more than necessary. I’ll be damned if I’m going to pay for a landslide.”
I guess they were stuffing ballot boxes in Chicago or something.
I said you were right -isn’t that what you wanted?
Except he was right in 1960 since no model can project a random factor like Voter Fraud. No one doubts now that the difference in the 1960 election was the urban Democrat machines voter fraud.
MI and Detroit were also the fraud keys in 1960. They flipped MI and IL. That won it for Kennedy.
You are right. Please see #15
Thank you! Intresting info there.
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