Posted on 11/07/2016 9:43:16 AM PST by ThinkingBuddha
Larry Sabato’s final prediction from FOX:
Hillary 322 EV’s
Senate 50-50
House loses 13, 15, something like that
And you think this is important because....?
I’ve never heard of Trafalgar polling: anyone familiar with them, know if they’re reliable?
Trafalgar Polling tends to be quite good. I really like the Who do you think your neighbors are voting for? question. It really broadens the reach of the poll beyond the sample size. Not as scientific, but I think a good indicator. A lot of the polls, including this one, are oversampling women. These folks are probably hedging the increased female voter turnout because of a woman in the race. I don’t think that is going to materialize. Partially because I think there is going to be an equal or larger increase in the male vote because of the wicked witch.
I am not sure that the I-4 corridor is as malleable in its national political sympathies as it seems. In state and local politics, yes, but in national politics, most newcomers are fairly well-set in their views when they arrive here. Since they often lag in getting registered, this tends to make for recurrent waves of new registration every four years, with a long-term trend of rising Hispanic registration that leans Democrat.
I live in a small subdivision in red county in a red state.
I KNOW most of my neighbors are voting Trump.
I’ve seen Trump yard signs.
I briefly saw a Hillary sign on the interstate exit last week. It was GONE before the day ended.
enjoyed reading this again...
While it was only a 1.2% win, we will take it!
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