Florida Early Vote update, 11/07/2016

11/07/2016 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 75.7% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.

79.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 74.1% of DEM ballots have been returned.

11/07/16: REPs - 1,047,119, DEMs - 980,440 lead of 66,679 for REPs, 41.0% to 38.5%

11/06/16: REPs - 1,043,583, DEMs - 974,135 lead of 69,448 for REPs, 41.1% to 38.4%

11/05/16: REPs - 1,019,738, DEMs - 947,476 lead of 74,262 for REPs, 41.3% to 38.4%

For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):

11/07/16: REPs - 147,709, DEMs - 175,801, lead of 28,092 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting

[JamesP81]

I’s are going to break for Trump pretty heavy then, or FL will sink us.

[Ravi]

My guess is that number just shot up for the Dems after this weekend.

[SpeedyInTexas]

It should have increased.

The big DEM gain on Sunday is a bit demoralizing. However, not a big issue really. If the polls were closed on Sunday, most of those DEM voters would have showed up on Tuesday. Just rearranging the chairs.

[Ravi]

Not necessarily. 2% difference isn’t huge. And this data was for through Friday. Saturday and Sunday were huge Dem days and I suspect they cannibalized a large amount of their 2012 voters this weekend.