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Some Interesting Internals from The Top Polls Used By RealClearPolitics
11/6/16 | OV

Posted on 11/06/2016 10:56:18 PM PST by OneVike



I'm only grabbing information from the internal numbers of the questionable polls that bring into question the final average.




Makes you wonder about those who can't remember if they voted 4 years ago?











There are a few interesting things to note from the McClatchy-Marist poll above. Especially when you consider they under polled Republicans. If you recalculate the number you would find that Trump does much better against Hillary with men than she does with women which is skewed by the over sampling of Democrats. Plus when pollsters say college educated vs college uneducated, they mean those with a 4 year college degree vs anyone who does not have a 4 year degree. I cannot stress the importance of the fact that there are almost 80% more Americans who went to college but never graduated, or just received a 2 year degree compared to the number of Americans who earned a 4 year degree.










Finally, I believe that Trump will win the election by 3% to 5%. I have numbers that points to Trump winning Florida by 3%, and that he will come real close to barely winning in a couple other Battle Ground states, but I have not been able to make the formula to work as surely in them as it does for Florida. I have used my Florida formula all the way back to Bush in 2000 and it is a good one. However, it just won't work as consistently in other battleground state, and my head is too tired to try any more. Plus there is no time left for me to keep trying.

In nut shell, it has to do with the number of registered voters for each party in Florida, and a tried and true formula of 87% of the registered Democrats voting compared to 97% of Republicans who always vote. With such a close number of Dem vs Rep registered voters, Trump will carry the state by 3%, and possibly more if there are a substantial number of Democrats crossing over to vote for Trump.

I tested the formula for 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012, and it works within .3% for all four Florida State elections. Not sure why it works that way in Florida and not in other states, but it does. Who knows, maybe it's a number the Democrats found and thus that is why they try to reach so many minority's in their push during their for long registration and early vote in order to steal the elections in Presidential election years.


TOPICS: Extended News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: facts; presidentialpoll; realclearavg
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To: Vermont Lt

After the results are in and the election is over, the vote breakdown is never a 10% discrepancy between partys.


21 posted on 11/06/2016 11:38:10 PM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: Former War Criminal

Sorry, but you need a government license to won one.

Just kidding.


22 posted on 11/06/2016 11:40:23 PM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: TomasUSMC

What’s up hard charging USMC? Semper Fidelis marine. Get Some! Jah Rooh!

Long time no talk.

Hey, Trump’s coming to Grand Rapids tonight. Are you going?


23 posted on 11/06/2016 11:46:23 PM PST by freepersup (A freeper behind every blade of grass.)
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To: OneVike

NBC is Clintons strongest but they polled 15% more people who voted Obama over Romney when in reality the spread was 3.9%.
If we even use 5% over polling of Obama voters Trump is ahead.


24 posted on 11/07/2016 12:15:26 AM PST by wiggen (#JeSuisCharlie)
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To: OneVike

Great work!

(If only there was a way to project election fraud, we’d have accuracy.)


25 posted on 11/07/2016 12:54:06 AM PST by ReaganGeneration2
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To: OneVike

If Trump loses, we know it’s rigged.


26 posted on 11/07/2016 1:10:04 AM PST by AU72
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To: freepersup

I will be there bro how about you?


27 posted on 11/07/2016 1:32:25 AM PST by TomasUSMC (FIGHT LIKE WW2, WIN LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM.)
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To: Former War Criminal

You are not setting off the sensors.

Stop 1 bus or car back from the white line. See if that sets if off, if not, stop 2 bus or carloads in back of the white line.


28 posted on 11/07/2016 2:11:00 AM PST by japaneseghost
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To: OneVike

One Vike, I like your tagline....I’m waiting too.


29 posted on 11/07/2016 2:21:55 AM PST by native texan (Drain the swamp!)
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To: rfp1234

It is common for more voters to recall having voted for the winner in the last election than previously did. But you both may well be right, with this skew a little high—even considering the virtue signalling of an Obama vote.


30 posted on 11/07/2016 2:36:21 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: OneVike
Some day I will explain how my boss saved the American tax payers billions of dollars over the years by forcing down the cost of the controllers.

Ping me if you do this.

31 posted on 11/07/2016 3:44:21 AM PST by Big Giant Head
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To: OneVike

NOTA and No Opinion should be much larger for those who have not yet voted. One of the reasons people have not voted early is that they still don’t know whom to vote for.

The NOTA/no opinion percent should be much larger in Sept and early October and gradually decline as people make up their mind.

One of the major reasons Clinton is given the edge is that she (allegedly) has a massive ground game. A major role of an effective ground game is to help the undecided decide. Trump (allegedly) has no ground game, let alone an effective ground game.

By not showing a larger undecided percent, the polls, in effect, have already factored in Clinton’s ground game to be effective in moving the undecided.

Ground games are a necessary part of a win. But they are limited by other campaign factors. In GA in 2014 the Ds had a massive, well funded, well run ground game for Nunn against Perdue. In Oct 2014 I predicted Nunn would come close due to that ground game.

Many co-workers and neighbors who had been reliable D voters in 2006 and 2010 told me they would not vote for Nunn because they were p’d over higher insurance premiums and higher deductibles for less coverage.

I was proven wrong. The well funded, well staffed 2014 ground game in GA was ineffective. Now in 2016 there is no D ground game in GA. That same funding and staff has left GA for FL and NC. It will be interesting to see if the massive D ground game in FL and NC can be effective given the climate of the voters in the areas their ground game is targeting.


32 posted on 11/07/2016 4:15:56 AM PST by spintreebob
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To: spintreebob
One of the major reasons Clinton is given the edge is that she (allegedly) has a massive ground game. A major role of an effective ground game is to help the undecided decide.

The primary role of the ground game is to get your voters to the polls.

33 posted on 11/07/2016 4:22:46 AM PST by okie01
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To: OneVike

They have to lie about these polls so people don’t question a Clinton win because of the cheating that is going to happen. The election is most certainly rigged. Corruption abounds. I pray I’m wrong.


34 posted on 11/07/2016 4:25:32 AM PST by New Jersey Realist (America is the land of the free BECAUSE of the brave)
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To: wiggen

I’m glad you caught that. I tried to get the parts of the polls that showed by comparison to facts how good Trump really is doing.

Add that to the other discrepancy in the other polls and I cannot help but see a rocking great night for trump.

Will it be a landslide? not sure, but it is most definitely looking like a much bigger win than Obama had in 2012.

And as far as setting us up to accept a rigged stolen election, I do not believe they can steal enough votes to win it for Hillary, because trump looks like he will be winning buy over 6 Million votes.


35 posted on 11/07/2016 5:35:41 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: AU72

To be honest, there will be massive froud, but I really do not think they can steal enough votes to give Hillary a win. Trump is set to win Huge.


36 posted on 11/07/2016 5:36:51 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: japaneseghost

No, it all has to do with the mass of the vehicles.You need to be dead center to trip the censors. Unless they set the sensors for a higher weight to click them.

Some places they do not want bicycles to trip them so the higher the mass needed trip it.


37 posted on 11/07/2016 5:39:51 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: Former War Criminal

Honestly, they set the sensor off or it is just damages. The sensors are under the street where the vehicle go over them. A vehicle as big as a bus should have no problem setting it off. That is a sensor problem not the controller problem


38 posted on 11/07/2016 5:42:02 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: native texan

Cool, It’s been a long wait, but as Abraham did, we too are just passing through


39 posted on 11/07/2016 5:42:58 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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To: Big Giant Head

I’ll put you on a to ping list.

I need to do it after he retires, which now will be soon.

If I ever even eluded to him he would get audited by California and the feds probably.

They know who he is, and have in the past tried to shut him down at the request of the politicians buddies the big corporations. He really cut into their bottom line by forcing down the prices.

I’ll give you a hint, when he began the average price of a controller was $1500 to $3000 per unit, and that was 30 years ago. Today the average price is about $1000. Originally he started selling them at $700, but costs have risen, but even at that he never had to raise them above $1000.


40 posted on 11/07/2016 5:48:56 AM PST by OneVike (I'm just a humble Christian waiting to go home)
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