Posted on 11/06/2016 10:41:20 AM PST by usafa92
No article just the link
(Excerpt) Read more at peoplespunditdaily.com ...
A couple thoughts. Rich Baris runs this poll. Rich has been mentioned frequently by LS as well. Rich runs the website People's Pundit Daily and is quite active on Twitter. I've had the opportunity to communicate with Rich quite frequently as he's accessible on Twitter. While close, Trump continues to consolidate and increase R support which is great. Trump is also up quite a lot with Indys +20. Rich is definitely a conservative but he does weight his poll about a D+5. Rich will say that this is what the electorate tells him, but we have empirical evidence from IBD that this will be an R+ election. At the end of the day, Rich is a straight shooter and in coming from a good place. If he's wrong on turnout it's not from cooking the books.
But ABC/WaPoop is giving H +5. Back to their old tricks again.
The only somewhat legit tracking poll left is Ras. None of these tracking polls are owned by a media sponsor. All have reputations to uphold because they rely on their reputations to maintain their business. I thought none would commit to either candidate without convincing data. Granted, most are still within their own margin of error, but they are going to cheat their topline numbers to show a “win” for the candidate they believe will win.
Lots of reason for optimism this weekend. This is just one more. Thanks for posting. All tv and radio news is O F F for me this weekend, and I recommend the same for everyone. Just pray, vote and be optimistic that in 2 days America will be preserved.
Rich is definitely a conservative but he does weight his poll about a D+5.
No, PPD doesn't weight by party ID. It's in the Methodology tab:
The People’s Pundit Daily U.S. Presidential Election Daily Tracking Poll does not weight based on party affiliation (party ID).
They do report it, and on 11/4 it was D/R/I = 40/35/25, or D+5.
PPD does weight by demographics and geographical region:
Polling results are weighted based on the U.S. Census Current Population Survey for demographics such age, sex, race, education and region. It uses a likely voter model based on responses to screening questions relating to prior voting history, enthusiasm and registration status etc.
Headline of the Day Poll
Final Pre-election Poll: Who are you voting for?
Donald Trump (56%)
Hillary Clinton (38%)
Gary Johnson (4%)
Jill Stein (1%)
Read more: http://www.headlineoftheday.com/#ixzz4PFxSTZ20
On line poll meaningless
I don’t think it likely that nearly 11% are undecided at this point. More likely, most are not willing to share their choice with the pollster.
85% of Trump voters claim to be "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic, compared to 74% of Clinton voters.
11% of Clinton voters claim to be "slightly" or "not at all" enthusiastic, compared to 7% of Trump voters.
Also interesting: 11% of Stein voters and 22% of Johnson voters are only "slightly" or "not at all" enthusiastic. I wonder if any of those will switch to Clinton or Trump at the last minute?
Ummm. And if you bothered to read the rest of my post i said that Rich will tell you they let the electorate decide what the weighting is...which he has been showimg D+5. We will see on Tuesday.
At PPD, only 4.8% reported being undecided. That's a decline from 6.2% on 10/31.
I quoted what you wrote: that he weighted the poll. That’s not true.
PPD does report the party ID reported by the respondents. That’s not weighting.
My bad; I forgot about Stein and Johnson.
So we have all three major daily tracking polls—including the IBD and LAT polls—giving it to Trump right now, correct?
The undecideds in this poll will largely break for Trump as well.
Good news.
2 days left.
I'm not sure it's worth worrying about.
I believe that most third-party voters are simply casting a "protest" vote.
But, I don't think the rational ones are casting those votes in battleground states. They think its safe in deep blue and red states because their vote won't affect the outcome.
...and Ras doesn’t post polls on the weekend, right? nuts.
You got it except for the ABC tracker which is an absolute mess with its fluctuations. You also have a dichotomy between online/IVR and live caller polls. We are going to either all be disappointed on Tuesday night or the polling industry is going to need to reevaluate itself. Personally, I think Trump wins this with around 300 EVs.
Way too high at D +5. Will be more like R +3. Hillary will be lucky if its flat.
There’s simply zero enthusiasm for her candidacy anongst base Democrats.
They won’t turn out for someone who can’t win.
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