Early voting is just voting early, it doesn't mean that those votes on Nov 8th won't beat them.
Here in NV, early voting is most prevalent in Las Vegas, which leans left. In the rest of the state there is less early voting compared to day of - and it is the rest of the state that will have an outsizedTrump vote.
It is a bit dicey because 70% of the vote comes from Vegas (Clark County), but Clark is not strongly Democrat, just marginally Democrat (though the number of immigrants here is exploding, not just Mexican but Asian as well). The rest of the state is solidly R enough where they can still swing it over. I’d look for a 3% margin for Trump, depending on Democrat defections to him, of which there will be some.