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Respondents

The survey’s daily results (for those posted on 7/29/16), were based on interviews conducted via Internet panel nationwide and vary daily (400+ target). Top line results for the first day represented a rolling weekly average, or the last seven days, and results will now represent a three-day average. Interviews were NOT conducted on Independence Day (July 4). The number of respondents will grow throughout the cycle and interviews are repeated.

Sample

All responses in the sample should be treated as “opt-in Internet panel” even though a percentage of respondents were specifically targeted based on registration status (more on that below in population). They are still ultimately considered opt-in and we do NOT treat them as a random sample. Respondents either received a mailer, an email, responded to social media ads or a website-based ad, or contacted us through another mode.

During screening or initial interviews, respondents are asked to give their names, contact information (i.e. email and/or phone), as well as the city and zip code where they are registered or plan to register to vote. This is so we can attempt to re-interview, to obtain regional data etc. The information is also used to verify registration status when possible (based on the state) for respondents who were not already identified.

We’ll attempt to contact a respondent for a repeat interview up to 10 times before removing them from the panel.

Population

The top line results are of likely voters, or at least our best estimate of registered voters we view to be most likely to vote based on past voting history, enthusiasm and registration status. We do not includes respondents who report they are not registered during initial interviews in the results, but also don’t immediately remove them as a potential panelist. They may register in the future and we view them as worthy of a follow-up. We do not completely eliminate them and will follow up to reduce the probability we will exclude potential new voters.