Posted on 10/23/2016 7:33:04 AM PDT by right-wingin_It
...On day 2 of this year's in-person early voting, 49 percent came from registered Democrats, 27 percent from registered Republicans, and 24 percent from registered unaffiliated voters. Cumulatively so far, registered Democrats are 51 percent of the early in-person ballots, registered Republicans are 26 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are 23 percent. In comparison to the same day in 2012 totals, registered Democrats are down 10 percent, registered Republicans are down 6 percent, and registered unaffiliated voters are up 28 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at oldnorthstatepolitics.com ...
Hes a Democrat Agent and propagandist, So what he says can be ignored for now. Politico’s Democrat analyst = DNC propaganda.
the key is Romney won NC in 2012 and the results are looking bad for Dem rats so far .
ralston was outed in the nv senate as a dem operative .
a certied liar and Harry reid plant
Except maybe George Will.
Angry voters don't answer polls, but they do turnout to vote.
The Revolution is ON!
Vote Trump!
From what I can make of that blog, is a lot of hollarin’, but the facts in all of that say: things are similar to 2012 turnout in urban Nevada, except for an 1,800 Dem ballot lead in Washoe (supposed swing) county 2016 vs. the 1,000 ballot edge they had for the first day in 2012. So in 800 extra ballots on the first day in 2012, and how do we know half of them aren’t 2nd amendment crossover Trump votes??
Romnney carried it by a mere 2 points. Obama won it by a very tiny fraction in 2008. Bush won it by the same HUGE 13 point margin both times. To me, Bush has more similarity to Trump than McCain or Romney, because he had the blue collar appeal. So I’ve never believed this is a state Hillary has a chance at.
IF the early in-person vote turn out trend holds (we’re only 2 days in), it should. I might look at the math later to see to what extent.
Writing a song with the line “They call him Mr. Brexit”.
“Many former GOP members dropped their party affiliation because GOPe was in the tank for themselves and big corporations”
yep, I’m one of those who did that ...
Yeah, he’s put up a summary now but I read it the same as you.
Oh well, now there’s a place where I can get those early NV numbers.
I just don't trust early voting anymore.
The mystery box is the number of unaffiliated voters.
I, myself, is nolonger R, but still conservative and will be voting for DJT!
MAGA!
If you assume D continues to be down 10% on in person voting and that also carries over to election day, and neutral on Absentee ballots, I'm estimating Clinton votes of 1.955 million (losing 10% of pre-vote and election day compared to Obama '12 = 210k lost votes [135k/74k]).
If you assume R continues to be down 6% in person and that carries over to election day and also continues down 15% on absentee ballots, I'm estimating Trump votes of 2.111 million (losing 6% of pre-vote and election day compared to Romney '12 = 127k lost votes [69k/58k] plus another 21k from absentee mail ins].
That would yield 48.1%C/51.9% Trump for NC. However, the incremental in-person votes among independents that is surging is heavily skewed towards whites and white men in larger than normal #s and Trump would probably pick up another 1% or so from that group so we are trending towards 47-53% if this continues. Of course, that is a big if - and third party votes could change things as well - but if I had to bet right now it looks like Trump takes NC on a bit lower turnout than 2012.
(if you assume election day voting = identical to 2012, it slightly moves it - 48.3%C/52.7%T)
I agree with the possibility of all of that. But I think some of the underperforming early vote may be due to polling station operating location and hours changes (for some counties) if there were any (reported in some main stream news headlines, and which I still would like to look at to understand). And so some of that “would-be early vote” could appear later on election day. That said, I don’t know the full details of those news articles yet.
Without Helms advising them, NC will disappoint.
I agree it will get closer to 2012 #s as time moves on. After day 1 of in person voting, Democrats were -11% and Republicans were -7%. After day 3 of in person voting it was -10% and -6%, so both improved a bit in day #2 and #3 relative to the first day compared to 2012. The big question is will blacks show up or not. So far, they haven’t while whites have showed up in the same #s (down on Ds and Rs, up big in Indies).
I see it going more in Trump’s direction.
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