Posted on 10/22/2016 3:33:03 AM PDT by rb22982
Donald Trump expanded his lead over Hillary Clinton in a four-way race to two points, 42%-40%, in day 4 of the IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll, with Trump moving past his Democratic rival in a head-to-head match-up for the first time.....
Meanwhile, in a 2-way race, Trump leads Clinton by a half-point -- 42.2% to 41.7%. Previously, Clinton had led by two or three points in a 2-way race vs. Trump.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
B-b-but RCP says that they’re tied in LA Times and IBD. Y-you mean RCP is lying to us? Faint./s
Results based on survey of 791 likely voters conducted from 10/16 - 10/21. Margin of error: +/- 3.6 percentage points. Party identification breakdown: (Unweighted) 250 Democrats/263 Republicans/260 Independents; (Weighted) 284/224/264.
Don’t know what weighted and unweighted means but that 284/224/264 is 772 total. 284/772 = 37%. 224/772 is 29%. 264/772 is 34%. That looks like D+8, but I don’t know what weighted/unweighted means. The unweighted is R+something and no one thinks that is a correct turnout model.
The next time I turn on Fox news will at 9PM EST Nov. 8 to see the flop sweat when it shows Trump winning.
I'm actually stunned that major polls are now showing Trump in the lead with still over two full weeks to go. The challenger typically "surges" in the final days.
With the very presidential speech that Trump just gave within the past hour, I sense that Trump momentum will continue to build.
That said, let's not take anything for granted. We must all act as though we are 10 points behind.
Don’t even bother looking at the 2 way RCP average. Look at the 4 way and subtract around a 1 point off Clinton’s 4 way lead (LA Times doesn’t do a 4 way and so isn’t included). RCP 2 way is right rounded - both are tied rounded. In the 4 way, IBD has Trump up +2 which is the accurate way to look at it. It’s likely if the LA Times did poll for four way it would look similar. So 4 way on RCP is 5.3% Clinton - 1% to add in LA Times = 4.3% Clinton lead based on the average polls, which includes 3 clinton outliers of +9-12%.
Oh I have no doubt Monmouth and Bloomberg will both show Trump down 8-10% this week in their weekly poll still and probably CBS poll. They’ll probably show the race tighten at the last minute just so they don’t “look” too far off.
Trump 46.0%
Clinton 36.7%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3.7%
Other/Don't Know 6.7%
Hey, it would be roughly the same win margin Reagan got!
Plus many more bombs to be dropped on hillary. I hope they try to drop more bombs on Trump. They always turn out to be duds, nothingburgers, fake. The backlash helps Trump. Plus every attack makes Trump stronger. They are used to McRomney and are livid that he hasnt caved and he makes bigger fools of them at every turn.
they are toying with us
Yes, this is a new poll - IBD/TIPP just started to track daily this week.
“Let’s hope this long national nightmare called the Obama era “
Don’t you mean the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama era ? ^_^
Or, if you’re bad at math, just figure that they lie. They drag their feet on updates that don’t suit them, and promptly post those that do. And then they lie.
Yup that too
Giorgio is really funny.
But this meme (Post #27) is disturbing as hell.
If you need me, I’ll be hiding in my corner
with some Twinkies and chocolate milk.
Fox polling agency is located in Boston, last I knew.
Enuf said.
I’ve been passing that around Trump FB pages for a while.
I like it.
:)
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