NC Early Voting 10/21

Old North State Politics ^ | 10/21/2016 | MICHAEL BITZER

[rb22982]

"The total number of in-person early ballots is down 3 percent from the same day in 2012, while those from registered Democrats are down 11 percent, from registered Republicans down 7 percent, but up among registered unaffiliated voters by 28 percent."

Current breakout**:
Democrat = 53%
Republican = 24%
Independent = 23%

"Among absentee mail-in ballots, we are nearing the end of the 6th week of voting, with nearly 180,000 ballots requested and over 58,000 ballots returned and accepted for votes."

Democrat = 35%
Republican = 40%
Independent = 25%

[rb22982]

**Early voting is huge in NC - roughly 60% of the 2012 vote (mostly in person rather than mail in); in person turnout day 1 is down from 2012 in NC with the largest drop by far on the Dem side. Unaffiliated are UP though - and if Trump is still up 10 pts with them, this overall is very good news for Trump. Plus, males represent 52% of Unaffiliated voting so far.

Only bad news I see is absentee ballots submitted is down significantly among republicans this election in NC so far (-40%) vs ~flat for Indys/Dems [note: requested total is down about 20% so far]. Overall absentee ballot requests including submitted are roughly 40% Republican, 31%democrat, 29% indy. So far looking like lower turnout than in 2012 but obviously a long ways to go and that could change (Early voting in 2012 in NC was roughly 7% delta for Obama over Romney based on party registration).

More at the link

[11th_VA]

I don’t see absentee ballots down among Reps as a negative. We can’t even trust the mail workers will deliver our ballots anymore, best to show up in person.

[11th_VA]

I also expect a 25% crossover from RATs to Reps ... That is, RATs that will vote for Trump

[IVAXMAN]

Looks good to me. More unaffiliated will be for Trump!

Net gain of 4% compared to 2012 + more unaffiliated.

[rb22982]

I’d take 15% crossover and another 10% going to third parties

[bort]

The spike in unaffiliated voters—and the disproportionate number of white men who are voting as unaffiliated—is very good news for Trump.

[FlipWilson]

Not sure if the poll was valid but earlier today someone posted an NC poll showing unaffiliated voters breaking for Trump.

[Carry me back]

Trump is up hugeeeeee !