[golas1964]

Maybe Mr. Trump could conduct an online poll ?

[ScaniaBoy]

I haven’t had time to read the full article yet, but I can add that Yougov actually a couple of times towards the end of the campaign ran paralell on-line and phone polls and those polls showed diametrically opposite results. Telephone polls showed a win for Remain and the online polls for Brexit.

The result appears at odds with the often stated claim that younger people were inclined to vote Remain. The only way to reconcile these results is that you had a large group of voters and more on the Brexit side that refused to answer polls.

I have written about this several times here on FR and that is one of the reasons (not the only one!) why one must be very wary of any polling results in the present climate.

[bigbob]

It will boggle the minds of everyone who’s ever taken a statistics class, but nonprobability polling is the future. Conventional (probability) polling rests on the assumption that a representative sample can allow estimation of the population. Nnonprobability surveys, which do not rely on random sampling and instead recruit through ads, pop-up solicitations and other approaches.

In a simple sense, consider what we see when Donald Trump gets 80% of the vote on the Drudge Report debate polls. The enthusiasm we show in these “non scientific” suveys is still a valid indication of public opinion. As is the fact that Democrats do not vote for Hillary in anywhere near the same way.

[KarlInOhio]

Throughout the campaign, the betting markets showed huge confidence in a Remain victory – odds on Brexit were often as long as 5:1, including on the day of the vote when at one point they hit 16:1.

One weakness of the "betting market" is that someone with money can use it as a push poll: they put a lot of money on the side they want to win in order to change the odds and capture the press narrative.

[lightman]

1) Betting sites have a vested interest in publishing disinformation and encouraging more wagers on the likely looser.

2) Polls—robocalls especially—ass/u/me that the respondents are honest with no mechanism for verificaiton.

Last week I was a 20-something black woman who is supporting Trump, opposed to recreational weed, and favoring existing gun laws.

[nhwingut]

It’s also why Trump does well with Rasmussen. It’s automated with no live person.

[CptnObvious]

why would you answer a survey if a stranger calls you on the telephone? We know that as few as 5% of people do

And if they do, they tend to give a politically correct answer fearing for their jobs, their homes and their social lives. It is the same thing here in the US.

[tbw2]

I know the phone polls can be biased. They ask questions that are so convoluted that the default answer is the “yes” they want. In other cases, they ask questions and if you answer as a conservative, they sometimes hang up on you.