Posted on 10/14/2016 9:24:34 AM PDT by justlurking
Trump is back up 41.5 to 40.9. This is the first time in 8 days. During the past 8 days, Clinton was up as much as 3.1%.
But, take a look at the historical data. Click on the CSV, and it will open it in Excel.
Clinton's support has been nearly constant, varying in a small range from 39.2% to 42.5%. Trump has had a much wider swing from 38.8% to 45.4%.
Then, look at the undecided column -- it varies from 2% to 8.9%. It's inversely correlated with Trump: when his support declines, the undecideds increase, and vice versa.
At least in this poll, the driving factor seems to be the people that are vacillating between undecided or voting for Trump.
What does this portend for the election? If this poll is representative, it's going to depend on whether the undecideds break for Trump or stay home (or vote for a third-party, which is the same as staying home). They don't seem to be interested in voting for Clinton.
Traditionally, undecideds break for the challenger. But, with all the mud being slung at Trump, I'm not sure that will happen this time.
Good. I hope enough people realize what the media is doing.
Conversely, I also think Trump is the type of candidate for this election where a good number of voters are not indicating their preference for him. Hillary has zero appeal, unless the women in this country decide they want a women president, even if that person is evil personified.
I’ve believed this for a while. HRC is so unpopular her support won’t ever exceed 43% or so. Everytime she leads in the polls it’s because DJT voters are getting shaky from the constant barrage of hit pieces against him in the media.
Why those polls that say Clinton’s ahead could be wrong
The most important thing to note in these poll swings is that the actual voters are really not changing their minds.
Common sense that people aren't changing their minds every day, every attack.
When folks step into the polling booth their real feelings will overtake them.
Just in case. Get Out The Vote
I’ve never seen an election where the incumbent (basically Hitlery is the incumbent) is polling low 40s consistently. It’s almost like 92 where you can have a challenger win with 43% of the vote.
“...unless the women in this country decide they want a women president, even if that person is evil personified....”
Voting for Hitlery because she’s a woman is like eating a turd because it looks like a Tootsie Roll
Well, it won’t be like 1992. The 3rd party candidates are not going to exceed 3.5% cumulative in this election. The winner will likely to 50% of the vote, although a 49-48 finish is possible, similar to 2000.
You KNOW is lead is greater than that
MSM threw gobs of mud at Ah-nold.
He won the CA recall election.
I wouldn’t overly worry about it.
Trump is nicely positioned in advance of the final debate next Tuesday night.
I look at Trump being more like 85% or higher.
Crooked Hillary in the low 40s... undecideds, indies and 3rd party wannabes will break to Trump at the end because it will come down to the issues and not all this tired MSM bullshit.
Yet another poll with Trump rebounding. Ignore the gloom and doomers who repeatedly declare his campaign dead. They’ve been wrong EVERY time.
Not to hijack your post, but while we’re on the subject, without starting a new thread, have you all seen the PMSNBC poll? One question - “Are you voting for the Broad”?
86% are saying ‘NOT A CHANCE IN HELL”.
More here:
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/poll-hillary-2016#56789
Jake Novak says Trump will our next President.
People made up their minds earlier this month and the trend line since Labor Day has gone Trump.
You can take all the polls you want but when you cut through the statistical noise, there’s been no real breakthrough for Hillary.
Note that even in the polls in which she’s supposedly ahead, her max is between 42-45%, tops.
She’ll get less than that in November. Its over.
LOL!
If Hillary got only the zombie vote, FR concern trolls wouldn’t be ready to jump out of the windows.
They’re ready to give Trump advice as though he doesn’t know how to campaign.
Sky is falling only if you really believe it.
Apparently PPD and Rasmussen didn’t get the memo that this race is already over.
I would sure like to think so. What really counts is who actually counts the votes.
Isn’t it not on WEDNESDAY the 19th?
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