I’ve never seen an election where the incumbent (basically Hitlery is the incumbent) is polling low 40s consistently. It’s almost like 92 where you can have a challenger win with 43% of the vote.
Well, it won’t be like 1992. The 3rd party candidates are not going to exceed 3.5% cumulative in this election. The winner will likely to 50% of the vote, although a 49-48 finish is possible, similar to 2000.