USC Dornsife/LA Times Poll: 10/7 -- Trump Down .4, Clinton Up 1.0

LA Times ^ | October 7, 2016 | LA Times

[BlessedBeGod]

Change:
Trump down .4
Clinton up 1.0

10/7:
Trump: 46.2
Clinton 43.6

10/6:
Trump: 46.6
Clinton 42.6

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

A lot of that money goes towards his rallies... those aren't cheap. Ask yourself... How many NEW votes do those add? Aren't they better spent bringing Hillary's approval numbers down, and his up, with positive ads?

He's being outspent 6-1!!!! 6-1

[Proudcongal]

The NRA ads are great, indeed.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Separately, new poll in Indiana... Bayh up only 1 over Young. Young surging, and he probably wins a state the Dems thought for sure they would win

[Right-wing Librarian]

>>We don’t know for sure why Hillary gained
***************************************************
It’s simple:

As they register more and more illegals, and then poll them, the poll numbers rise!

[Proudcongal]

I’m in Florida and see a few Trump ads, but am bombarded by Hillary ads. And I am receiving a bunch of flyers in the mail from the democrat party. Nothing from Trump or the republican party or pacs. Still, at least up until now, her ads haven’t seemed to make a lot of difference. But what has happened over the last couple days that Trump has lost ground nationally? His numbers seemed to have gone up right after the Pence/Kaine debate and suddenly he’s losing points.

[theoilpainter]

Agreed, except that Trump also had a bad day on Rasmussen.

[Rokke]

I posted the actual dollar amounts spent in support of Romney and Obama. Where are you getting your numbers? Here's a website to support mine. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

You are certainly entitled to your own opinion. You are not entitled to your own facts.

[Rokke]

My theory on the gain is what I'd call "the hurricane effect". During a significant national crisis, people tend to retreat toward the known. That helped Bush during his first term (war on terror) and killed Romney in 2012 when hurricane Sandy struck. When people feel anxiety they minimize other change in their lives.

Totally a guess on my part but there is nothing else out there to drive a shift in the polls right now.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

I supplied a link in post #65.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Meant post #73

[Rokke]

That's the current election. You said Obama outspent Romney 2-1 or 3-1 in 2012. Where is that data?

[Rokke]

Just check out the link I provided from the Washington Post showing total campaign ad spending. It includes a table showing state by state breakdowns. You will note that Romney outspent Obama by significant amounts in the battleground states and lost most of them.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

It’s there. Look further down the page. Compares Trump vs Clinton to date, and Romney vs Obama at this time four years ago

[Rokke]

Sorry. I saw that after I posted. But again, review that WP link. It includes a cool interactive graph that plots out state by state ad spending from April to November 2012. Romney significantly outspent Obama in almost every state for the duration of the election. And lost almost every state he spent his money in. It also shows that both campaigns significantly ramped up spending in early October. That is because lots of data shows political ads have a very short term impact. No point in spending money if the impact doesn’t carry to the election. Early voting has only just started. If you are going to spend money on ads, now is a better time to do it.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Through Sept 27th, do you know how much Trump spent in ads? $50,000. That's it... how many ads does that buy? I'm guessing the ads you see are SuperPACS of NRA.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-presidential-campaign-tv-ads/

[ctpsb]

“I’m in Florida and see a few Trump ads, but am bombarded by Hillary ads. And I am receiving a bunch of flyers in the mail from the democrat party. Nothing from Trump or the republican party or pacs. Still, at least up until now, her ads haven’t seemed to make a lot of difference. But what has happened over the last couple days that Trump has lost ground nationally? His numbers seemed to have gone up right after the Pence/Kaine debate and suddenly he’s losing points.”

Again though know no one wants to hear this I really really believe the polls are mostly manipulated. Theswild volatility of all of these polls make absolutely no sense.

People just don’t change their minds that much that soon. Sorry just don’t buy it.

FWIW IMHO.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

With early voting in so many states, I disagree that it’s not important to advertise early and often... can you send the link, I’d like to take a look? Thanks

[Rokke]

Http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/track-presidential-campaign-ads-2012/

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Thank you

[Quicksilver]

Folks, to better understand the day-to-day changes in a rolling daily poll like this one, you should, in addition to other things, look at the day that rolled off.

For example, yesterday’s result 10/6 (posted today, 10/7):

10/6
Trump 46.2
Clinton 43.6

This is a 7-day rolling poll, so its range is 9/30 to 10/6. The day that rolled of was 9/29:

9/29
Trump 47.3, a strong day rolled off, replaced by a not as strong day.
Clinton 41.7, a weak day rolled off, replaced by a better day.

Trump 46.2 - 47.3 = -1.1
Clinton 43.6 - 41.7 = 1.9

A very good day rolled off for Trump and a very bad day rolled off for Clinton is probably the primary reason for the 10/5 vs 10/6 change.

The chart that I used for this is at:

http://cesrusc.org/election/