The problem with the debate strategy of not attacking and just looking presidential is... it is completely dependant on the other candidate not attacking you.
You can not (as Trump did) allow the other candidate to inflict damage to you without countering.
I saw it basically as a fight where every so often Hillary (with a giant target hanging from her neck) would lunge forward and stab Trump 3 times in the side with a small knife while Trump just stood there doing nothing holding a machine gun. And it happened over and over.
Basically, it wasn’t “fun” to watch.
In fact it was basically the only thing Trump has done the whole campaign that wasn’t fun.
Polls are usually right. Think back to 2012. Not to the one or two you focused on. To the average of all of them.
Here’s what it looked like just before the election:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
My recall is Dems turned out 6% more than GOP which was underestimated by pollsters.
It is unlikely that 6% will be matched without blacks being energized — but the woman vote pickup may offset some of that — though not all.
The stuff about lower GOP support for Trump than Dem support for Clinton is probably moderate GOP women voting gender rather than party.
The pollsters’ turnout model will lean on 2012 and that’s unlikely to prove accurate, so add 2% to Trump results. The new voter stuff . . . non degreed men . . . well, maybe.
But there is the old saying — you show me a candidate depending on new voters, and I’ll show you a loser.