I was basing it upon the RCP No Tossup map referenced by this post.
I see they have Nevada shown as "red," which would be a great thing because I think it's probably a tossup at best. Not that I think it's a Democratic lock, but Obama did win there twice (and by a decent margin in 2012) and the state vote is heavily skewed by the Las Vegas area. It might be the least reliable state in a presidential election, either way.