I think Trump’s political stature is much better if he LOSES Virginia and WINS two of those Rust Belt states. He’s running as an outsider, which means getting “flyover country” states while losing “Northeast Corridor” states will give him a much stronger governing mandate.
To take those rust belt states, blue collar voters have to come out in droves for Trump. If that happens, I think they will carry him over the top in Virginia as well, and we can all watch Larry Sabato explode on live TV.