(Vanity) Electoral Votes Continue to Flow toward Trump - Update

Self | 9/22/2016 | Scouter

[scouter]

For several elections now I've followed the progress of the election on electoral-vote.com. Although their commentary is fairly strongly left-leaning, I have found their results to be pretty accurate.

For the last several weeks I've been comparing their current data with the data from August 25. There are some interesting findings. Here are the weekly totals for the last 4 weeks:

Date	Clinton	Trump	Tied
8/25	332	191	15
9/1	303	191	44
9/8	294	226	18
9/15	274	258	6
9/22	289	245	4

So four weeks ago, Trump needed to gain 79 electoral votes, and Clinton could afford to lose 62. By last week, Trump had already gained 67 electoral votes (85% of those he needs), and Clinton had lost 58 (94% of those she can afford to lose). This week we take a step back. As of this morning, Trump has gained 54 electoral votes (68% of those he needs), and Clinton has lost 43 (69% of those she can afford to lose).

Nevertheless, there is a definite shift toward Trump in electoral votes, both in terms of actualized EVs (if you can call today's status "actualized," which you can't, since they won't truly be "actualized" until November 8--but I can't find a better word), and potential EVs. In the last four weeks, 21 states, representing 215 electoral votes, have shifted in one direction or the other, the vast majority in Trump's favor. However, last week these numbers were 28 and 302, respectively. So it seems that in the last week, there has been a definite shift back toward the August 25 numbers.

Out of the 21 states that have shifted from one category or another, 17 of them have been toward Trump. Here's a summary:

EVs Shifted in Trump's Direction:

Changed Hands from Clinton to Trump: 39 (down from 62 last week)
Changed Hands from Tied to Trump: 15 (up from 0 last week)
Stayed Trump's, but more strongly so: 25 (down from 85 last week)
Stayed Clinton's, but more weakly so: 100 (up from 87 last week)
Total: 179 (down from 234 last week)

EVs Shifted in Clinton's Direction:

Changed Hands from Trump to Clinton: 0 (same as last week)
Changed Hands from Tied to Clinton: 0 (down from 15 last week)
Stayed Trump's, but more weakly so: 25 (down from 40 last week)
Stayed Clinton's, but more strongly so: 7 (same as last week)
Total: 32 (down from 62 last week)

Put simply, a net 147 electoral votes moved in Trump's direction, as compared to August 25. Last week this number was 172.

Note also, the following:

1. No votes went from Trump to Clinton, while 39 votes went from Clinton to Trump.
2. Among EVs that did NOT change hands, Trump's votes are more strongly his, and Clinton's EVs are more weakly hers.
3. Out of all 50 states, three weeks ago 41 EVs were barely Trump's, 12 were barely Clinton's, and 15 were tied. Today those numbers are 81, 73, and 4, respectively. This means that as of today, 158 EVs are clearly within grasp of the other candidate, but four weeks ago only 68 EVs were that uncertain. This means that the election is wide open, and momentum is in Trump's direction.
4. Out of all the states that shifted in their support for their candidates, Trump has 59 EVs that are barely his, while Clinton has 73 EVs that are barely hers. Trump has fewer that are barely his than he did 1 week ago, but Clinton has more. This is due to the overall shift of EVs toward Trump.

Summary Data for All 50 States and the District of Columbia:

	25-Aug	22-Sep	Net Loss/Gain
Strongly Dem	231	164	-67
Likely Dem	89	52	-37
Barely Dem	12	73	61
Exactly Tied	15	4	-11
Barely GOP	41	81	40
Likely GOP	55	58	3
Strongly GOP	95	106	11

Clinton lost big in both the "strong" and "likely" categories, and gained huge in the "barely" category. Taken together and with the fact that she lost 43 EVs, this represents a major weakening of her base support.

On the other hand, Trump gained 54 EVs and gained in the "barely" and "strong" categories, and lost EVs in the "likely" category. This is because some of Clinton's support became his, and a significant amount of the support he already had became stronger.

Tipping Point

Maine (4 EVs) is now tied. Florida (29 EVs) is within 3%. If Trump can turn these two states and keep the ones he already has, then he will win the election. Michigan (16 Evs) and Rhode Island (4 EVs) and Wisconsin are all barely Democrat, with Trump being within 3% of Clinton. New Jersey's 14 EVs are also within reach for Trump.

There are now 77 EVs within striking distance of Trump, and 85 EVs within striking distance of Clinton.

Conclusion

The Electoral Vote momentum is clearly still in Trump's direction, but somewhat more weakly so, as compared to 7 days ago. Nevertheless, his EVs continue to solidify, as compared to 4 weeks ago. Further, EV support for Clinton continues to weaken. The race continues to tighten, but not quite as strongly as a week ago.

Detailed Data

Here's the detailed data on each state that shifted support in one direction or the other over the last two weeks. Positive number reflect movement toward Trump, and negative numbers represent movement toward Clinton. The data was gleaned from electoral-vote.com:

State	25-Aug	22-Sep	Electoral Votes	Moving towards Trump (All)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Rep)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Dem)	Moving towards Trump (Currently Tied)
Kansas	Likely Republican	Strongly Republican	6	6	6
Missouri	Barely Republican	Strongly Republican	10	10	10
South Carolina	Barely Republican	Strongly Republican	9	9	9
Alaska	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	3	-3	-3
Indiana	Strongly Republican	Likely Republican	11	-11	-11
Iowa	Barely Democrat	Likely Republican	6	6	6
Arizona	Likely Republican	Barely Republican	11	-11	-11
Ohio	Likely Democrat	Barely Republican	18	18	18
Nevada	Barely Democrat	Barely Republican	6	6	6
Colorado	Strongly Democrat	Barely Republican	9	9	9
North Carolina	Tied	Barely Republican	15	15	15
Maine	Strongly Democrat	Tied	4	4			4
Florida	Likely Democrat	Barely Democrat	29	29		29
Wisconsin	Likely Democrat	Barely Democrat	10	10		10
New Jersey	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	14	14		14
Rhode Island	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	4	4		4
Michigan	Strongly Democrat	Barely Democrat	16	16		4
Minnesota	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	10	10		10
Virginia	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	13	13		13
New Hampshire	Strongly Democrat	Likely Democrat	4	4		4
Connecticut	Likely Democrat	Strongly Democrat	7	-7		-7
Totals			215	151	54	81	1

[butlerweave]

Hillary , “What , I paid for those”

[mainerforglobalwarming]

Does anyone have current polling from New Hampshire?

[Pollster1]

The debates on Monday night will be a key deciding factor. There is no guarantee that Trump “wins”, particularly among those who only hear sound bites, but it could still help him even if reported as a Hillary win. If Hillary doesn’t participate, her failure to show up will probably hurt her as much as a severe debate loss would. I expect significant movement one way or the other by this time next week.

[RoseofTexas]

GOOD!! ...Flow baby flow!!! 🇺🇸⌛️

[ichabod1]

SHE is studying and practicing while Trump isn’t even taking it that seriesly!@!

[b4me]

All that practicing and she may end up appearing like a robot (remember Rubio) while Trump comes off human.
Not perfect or most knowledgeable, but more sincere about wanting to help USofA than just knowing stuff - like her, she doesn’t truly want to help, just make her “history” marks to pad her resume before her final coughing fit or fall.

[Pollster1]

We will see how that goes. I don’t think there are any guarantees on how a fair debate would turn out, even if it happened to be fair.

[SteveO87]

I think his practice is the honing of his message that he is doing on the stump.
I agree that her’s will be stilted and memorized talking points that people will see as disingenuous.

[vooch]

RI ?

if RI breaks for Trump, then NJ (14) will also go Trump and NY (29) will become a very real possibility

[Parmy]

Modern debates (so-called) seem to me to be question and answer forums with a biased moderator asking the questions.

I, because I am not the brightest around, don't see point-counterpoint in any of this.

[Tanniker Smith]

Doesn't he already have 1 of Maine EVs at this point?

Florida would definitely make things a lot easier.
And what's up with North Carolina right now is anyone's guess.

[scouter]

Doesn't he already have 1 of Maine EVs at this point?

Yes, he does. And I think there's another state that also does something similar, but electoral-vote.com doesn't break the votes out like that.

[grayhog]

This is great analysis, thanks for doing it!