The first debate will be very decisive. He needs to crush her.
That’s going to be a tall order. The moderators will be in full Candy Crowley mode.
Holy crap! Nate get a grip.
Exactly. Like Alabama at home versus Northeast Alaska State.
(No, there isn’t a Northeast Alaska State, but you get the picture - I hope) :)
Roll Tide
(No I am not an Alabama grad, but couldn’t mention Alabama without a Roll Tide) :)
The bar is low for both Clinton and Trump in the debate. Normally it would be high for Clinton, except for her recent setbacks.
Trump is not known for being a strong debater, although he did well enough in the primaries, and doesn’t have the depth of knowledge (mostly BS) that Clinton has, although he is a quick study. He just needs to remain focussed, statesmanlike and not take bait that she throws out to him which would reinforce her meme that he is temperamentally unfit.
Clinton is not well. Whether it’s truly pneumonia and/or something else, she clearly is struggling. She needs to reassure the public that she has a strong enough constitution to handle the job. If she remains standing and seems to keep her wits about her, she’ll get kudos and the DBM will laud her for her courage and fortitude.
Likability is a huge factor. As long as Trump makes his points with a smile and doesn’t get angry and flustered, he’ll come across well. He also appears to be speaking off the cuff from the heart and not scripted. He connects with people and doesn’t sound like your typical mealy mouthed pandering politician.
Clinton has never smiled in her life, although she is known to occasionally cackle irrationally. Pretty weird, really. She can be particularly strident and annoying. She also filibusters with memorized and scripted answers which make her sound like just another pandering politician.
So basically, Trump has to be statesmanlike in demeanor (people will remember that, not necessarily what he says) and Clinton needs to remain standing until the end. If they both achieve that, it will probably be called a draw which will accrue to Trump’s advantage.
Actually all he needs to do is look reasonable and he wins.
No one is watching to see Hillary other than those who are already going to vote for her.
Everyone else is watching to see Trump, either because they already have decided to support him or are deciding whether they will or not.
Anyone other than a first time voter has already committed to Hillary if they are going to, nothing she does or says will get her one more vote.
The rest who aren’t already committed to Trump or Hillary are tuning in to see if Trump is the racist monster that the dems and the MSM have told them he is, or if he is a reasonable person.
If they decide he is reasonable they will vote for him, if they decide he isn’t they will stay home or vote 3rd party. None of them will decide to vote for Hillary.
Hillary could win the debate on points, do everything right, and she still won’t win as long as Trump looks reasonable.