You are right. NEVER forget that the Democrats have 47% of the vote in the bag based on freebies alone. No matter WHO they run as a candidate.
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This 47% is very true, but, if the 47% are even a little dissatisfied with what they have and if the 47% can be made to believe that working is better than welfare . . . Well if only a few percent of those 47% stay home AND if a good percentage of the remaining 53% vote there is a chance.
Because of the way our founding fathers set up the electoral college the 53% are actually better represented in the college than the 47%. The 47% are packed into cities, in states with large populations. Thus, while there are a lot of US House representatives in those states the flyover country has an advantage of sorts in senate electors.
In states, basically states not on the coast, there is a higher percentage of people not of the “47%” than in the states with big cities, except for Nebraska all those electoral votes will go to the winner. Likely Trump will carry all those states. It is looking more and more like Trump will carry some of the contested or usually Democrat states too. Trump will lose the 55 votes in California but has a chance in Pa., NJ., FL., NC., certainly SC., and maybe even his home state of NY. Several of the far west states like CO, NM,AZ and NV are in play. If Trump wins most of these states he will be president. Right now he is leading in polling in most of these states. Counting electoral college votes right now based on liberal polling Trump is winning. We haven't seen Hillary's October surprise yet and that worries me. If Trump wins, I think he will, it will be surely in good part because he can draw a crowd but he will owe an awful lot to Julian Assage.
There are many people at State and IRS that are guilty of crimes and should be tried and all of them that participated in the shenanigans of Hillary and Obama should be impeached and never draw another penny from the treasury. This includes John Kerry, who by the way served in Vietnam.